Vitol and Trafigura: modern pirates of the caribbean

XBR/USD

Key zone: 65.00-66.20

Buy: 66.50(on strong positive fundamentals); target 68.50-69.50; StopLoss 65.80

Sell: 64.50(on a confident breakout of the 65.00 level); target 63.00-61.50; StopLoss 65.20

The Trump administration views control over Venezuelan oil exports as a political and economic victory. Against the backdrop of falling production and overflowing storage, the key task becomes the urgent resumption of supplies.

For this purpose, the U.S. issued special licenses to the trading houses Vitol Group and Trafigura Group, effectively transferring to them the right to commercialize sanctioned crude worth several billion dollars.

Both companies are global leaders in commodity trading with extensive logistics and trading networks, capable of extracting profit from any instability and geopolitical crisis. Vitol’s revenue last year reached $505 billion, and the combined daily oil volumes handled by Vitol and Trafigura are comparable to the total consumption of Japan, Germany, India, and Mexico.

Let us recall:

Over the past 10 years, U.S. sanctions on the oil of Venezuela, Russia, and Iran forced both European and American traders out of transport logistics, and their place was taken by Asian buyers who received crude at substantial discounts.

Incidentally, Venezuelan heavy crude grade Merey was sold to China at a discount of more than $10 to Brent. This grade is characterized by high density and processing complexity, which limits the range of refineries capable of handling it.

As a result of Trump’s successful “military-political action,” Vitol and Trafigura get the opportunity to regain their positions.

The companies signed contracts with Petroleos de Venezuela SA to sell between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil. Given that the purchase price from PDVSA is approximately $15 below the Brent price, the deals create significant profit potential.

The first shipment arrived at the Bullen Bay terminal on January 18. It is this terminal that will become the key storage and distribution hub for Venezuelan oil, since most U.S. ports do not accept supertankers with capacity over 1 million barrels.

It is interesting that these tankers were ready for departure even before Trump’s public meeting with oil companies. This is logical, given that Vitol and Trafigura are among the TOP-10 donors to his election campaign.

• John Addison, senior trader at Vitol, donated $5 million of personal funds to the Maga Inc fund in October 2024 and more than $1 million to other projects linked to the Trump family. As a result, Vitol received the first contract.
• Trafigura, according to OpenSecrets, directed $525 thousand to lobbying in the U.S. in 2024–2025 and received the second contract for $250 million.

The return of Vitol and Trafigura to Venezuela occurred after several years of U.S. investigations, during which these highly respected companies were forced to admit guilt in corruption and bribery in contracts with South American state oil companies. This caused sharp criticism from Democratic senators, but for Trump this is not an argument.

The issued licenses, granted to “Trump’s friends,” allow work not only with Venezuelan oil, but also with other commodities, including metals and minerals. This potentially opens the path to exports of gold and aluminum with the possibility of deliveries to any markets. For example, the companies are now studying demand in China and India, offering a discount of $5–8 per barrel to Brent. With such a pricing and flow management model, the probability of price manipulation remains high.

Control over Venezuelan oil exports has become for the U.S. an instrument of economic and political influence, and for Vitol and Trafigura — a source of large-scale trading advantage.

The discount to Brent and exclusive licenses form high profit potential and increase the risks of supply disruptions, for example, due to foreign-policy force majeure.

At the same time, the deal underscores the growth of protectionism, the political dependence of commodity flows, and the increased vulnerability of the global oil market.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!