Trump’s trade war: first anniversary

SP500

Key zone: 6,700 - 6,800

Buy: 6,850 (on a pullback following a retest of 6,750); target 7,100; StopLoss 6,780

Sell: 6,650 (on strong negative fundamentals); target 6,400; StopLoss 6,720

A year ago, the United States shifted from targeted tariff measures to a full-scale trade war. Over the past year, Trump’s policy has fundamentally reshaped the structure of global trade, moving it from a multilateral system to a format of bilateral agreements.

Tariffs have ceased to be purely an instrument of import taxation — they have become a key macroeconomic factor influencing exchange rates, commodity markets, and global risk appetite.

At the same time, Trump continues to use the “potential tariff rollback” factor as a tool of pressure, despite the legal pause. Notably, another increase in tariffs on pharmaceuticals to 200% by the summer of the current year has been announced — this represents the next major sectoral risk.

Reminder:

Since April 2, 2025, the “reciprocal tariffs” strategy has been implemented, formally justified by an emergency economic situation and chronic U.S. trade deficits. The mechanism remains unchanged: maximum pressure — followed by an offer to lift restrictions in exchange for loyalty, including political. The result is bilateral tariff agreements that effectively undermine the role of global trade institutions (such as the WTO) and strengthen U.S. protectionism.

In the second half of 2025, the trade war finally transformed into a format of “personal deals”: agreements were reached with the EU, China, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Southeast Asian countries, and Latin America. The agreed tariff levels range between 10–40%, while in certain sectors, including industrial metals, conditions remain more stringent.

In February 2026, following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling declaring some tariff measures unlawful, the Trump administration swiftly moved to new legal mechanisms to maintain pressure.

During this period, it became clear that the goals of tariff policy extend far beyond fiscal objectives.

• Tariffs are used as a tool of coercion in negotiations, rather than as a classical tax. Despite the pressure, global trade has not contracted but has continued to grow faster than global GDP, merely changing its structure.
• One of the key drivers has been goods related to artificial intelligence — chips, server, and networking equipment. Their share exceeded 30% of total trade growth, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia as the main suppliers.
• China incurred noticeable losses, but not on the scale expected by Trump. U.S. imports from China fell by 27% in the first ten months of 2025, yet the trade deficit only declined to $202 billion. A significant portion of flows was redirected to Vietnam and Taiwan, where the U.S. bilateral deficit reached record levels.
• An additional factor of instability was the legal conflict between the president and the Supreme Court, followed by the introduction of a 10% tariff under Section 122 to address balance of payments issues

Initially, it was expected that high tariffs would support the dollar by reducing imports and increasing domestic prices. However, as early as spring 2025, the market interpreted these measures as negative for U.S. economic growth and U.S. assets.

In the early stages of escalation, the dollar weakened against safe-haven currencies — the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen — while capital shifted into safer assets. Notably, during the shock of April 2, 2025, the dollar declined rather than strengthened.

At the same time, the U.S.-China truce in 2025 had the opposite effect: the dollar strengthened, and risk appetite recovered. This confirmed that for the market, the critical factor is not the tariff level itself, but the risk of global destabilization.

And what is the result?

Over the year, U.S. tariff policy has changed pricing principles in key markets. The dollar has lost its status as an unconditional beneficiary, gold has regained a stable political premium, and commodity dynamics have become directly dependent on expectations of global growth. Industrial metals now react not only to macroeconomics but also to specific tariff decisions from Washington.

The tariff war has moved from a shock phase to a prolonged confrontation with large capital — both domestic and foreign. This process may continue for years, shaping a new architecture of the global market. Ignoring the tariff factor under current conditions means underestimating one of the key drivers. Adapting to this new reality becomes a necessary condition for operating in the markets.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!