Gold as a safe haven in crisis

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,500.00 -4,700.00

Buy: 4,850.00 (on a decisive break of 4750); target 5,100-5,250; StopLoss 4,750.00

Sell: 4,500.00 (on strong negative fundamentals); target 4,250-4,000; StopLoss 4,600.00

In any global turmoil, the market actively buys gold, and since September 2025 — silver as well. Precious metals experienced a rapid surge at the beginning of 2026 and an equally sharp decline in February–March. Yet the buying trend remains relevant, even if technical indicators suggest otherwise.

We are simultaneously observing two typical developments — a correction after a strong rally and asset sell-offs at the very onset of a global crisis.

• The scale of the sell-offs indicates that financial problems may be more significant than they appear. Some monetary regulators (for example, Turkey) are attempting to reduce gold reserves to stabilize their currencies and to pay for more expensive energy resources. Egypt, for instance, reported that its spending on energy imports has tripled.
• Retail investors facing liquidity shortages (due to withdrawal limits from private credit funds, margin calls, etc.) prefer to lock in profitable positions while holding on to losing ones. Confidence in gold as the main source of profit remains intact.

For example, in March 2026, premiums on physical gold — coins and bars — remained elevated throughout the sell-off. The divergence between “paper” and physical gold is a sign of forced institutional selling rather than a fundamental reassessment of the asset. Buyers of physical metal (central banks, jewelers, institutional investors purchasing bullion for storage) have not changed their view of gold’s fundamental value.

At the same time, geopolitical risks (one of the drivers of precious metals since 2022) increased with the start of the U.S. military operation in the Middle East, as did stagflation risks.

A long-term rise in energy prices will hit the poorest segments of the population and developing countries the hardest — where production is more energy-intensive and inefficient, and food costs are higher.

In a stagflation scenario, the key driver for precious metals will be low or even negative interest rates.

The depth of a typical correction in precious metals has already been reached, and the key question now is whether the force-majeure crisis-driven sell-offs by certain global central banks and private holders have ended.

There is no clear answer yet, as the world remains in an information bubble shaped by the PR support of the U.S. military operation. The rhetoric of financial officials and market experts attempts to reduce panic, while major banks hope that a crisis on the scale of Lehman Brothers will not materialize.

Tensions among speculators have eased, and competitors to the U.S. dollar are strengthening again — a process also reflected in gold asset prices.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.