Gold and silver: buy today!

XAU/USD

Key zone: 3,850.00 - 4,000.00

Buy: 4,100.00 (on a confident break above 4,000); target 4,350-4,500; StopLoss 4,000.00

Sell: 3,800.00 (on a pullback after retesting 3,950); target 3,650-3,500; StopLoss 3,900.00

Historically, in late June and early July, gold and silver have often formed local bottoms before entering a strong rally during the second half of the year. In other words, buying gold and silver at the end of June or the beginning of July and holding positions until year-end has historically generated consistent profits.

One of the most reliable historical scenarios suggests that gold and silver establish significant lows in June before transitioning into a steady uptrend lasting through Christmas or, at the very least, until Thanksgiving. Similar price action has been observed repeatedly over previous years.

• This pattern is especially pronounced in silver. Historically, the metal has frequently reached a local bottom at the end of June before entering an active rally, finishing the autumn at new annual highs in late November or early December.
• Gold generally follows a similar pattern, although its price behavior differs somewhat. During July, gold often consolidates within a sideways trading range, whereas silver typically demonstrates a much stronger upward move over the same period.

Last year this pattern also played out. Gold rose from approximately $3,300 per ounce in June to around $4,300 per ounce by the end of the year. Silver performed even better, nearly doubling in value—from $35 to approximately $70 per ounce.

A similar trend can also be observed in the copper market. Although copper is classified as an industrial metal, it competes with silver across many applications. As silver becomes more expensive, manufacturers increasingly seek to replace it with the more affordable copper wherever technology allows.

The fundamental supply-and-demand picture also remains supportive. According to current estimates, global copper demand could exceed today's level by nearly 50% by 2040, surpassing 40 million metric tons annually. This makes copper another potentially attractive asset for investors who have focused exclusively on precious metals.

However, seasonal factors are far from being the only argument in favor of gold and silver.

• Central banks continue increasing their investments in precious metals.
  
  Monetary authorities around the world continue to maintain strong demand for gold and silver, steadily expanding their reserves. Clearly, these purchases are not being made in anticipation of a long-term decline in prices.
  
  Gold has already surpassed U.S. Treasury securities in terms of attractiveness as a reserve asset. At the same time, many countries continue repatriating their gold reserves from overseas vaults located in London, New York, and other financial centers.
  
  
• Pressure on the precious metals market is gradually easing.
  
  For many years, the world's largest bullion banks restrained the rise in gold and silver prices by maintaining massive short positions on the futures exchanges in London and New York. Today, the center of market influence is gradually shifting toward Asian trading hubs, particularly Shanghai and Hong Kong.
  
  One of the clearest examples was JPMorgan's decision in 2025 to close a silver short position exceeding three million ounces. Several years earlier, the bank had already paid a substantial fine after being accused of market manipulation.
  
  
• The structural silver deficit remains in place.
  
  The balance between supply and demand continues to favor further price appreciation. In addition to its traditional applications in solar energy, electric vehicle manufacturing, medical equipment, mobile electronics, and industry, additional demand is now being generated by artificial intelligence, robotics, and defense technologies.
  
  As a result, total global demand exceeds 2 billion ounces of silver per year, while annual mine production amounts to only about 800 million ounces. Consequently, current mining output covers only about 40% of total consumption.
  
  

What does this mean in practice?

Long-term forecasts for the precious metals market remain highly optimistic. Some projections suggest that gold could reach $18,000 per ounce or higher by 2030, while silver could rise to $1,500 per ounce or more.

Even the most conservative scenarios assume that gold will trade above $5,000 per ounce and silver above $100 per ounce as early as 2027.

Additional attention from market participants is being drawn to statements made by Donald Trump, who previously promised his longtime economic adviser Judy Shelton that, as part of the celebration of America's 250th anniversary, he would consider issuing gold-backed U.S. Treasury bonds and revaluing the nation's official gold reserves.

If even one of these initiatives is implemented, it could become a powerful additional catalyst for higher gold and silver prices.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!