Bitcoin as a weapon of retribution

BTC/USD

Key zone: 63,500 - 67,500

Buy: 67,500 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 71,500-75,000; StopLoss 66,500

Sell: 63,000 (on a confident breakout of the 64,000 level) ; target 58,500-53,500; StopLoss 64,000

The digital asset market failed to withstand a large-scale wave of sell-offs: none of the classical Wall Street strategies provided protection against the current crisis. Bitcoin recorded its strongest one-day decline since the 2022 collapse.

Over the past 24 hours, the volume of forcibly liquidated positions exceeded $1 million, while total losses on leveraged long trades reached approximately $980 million.

Traders are massively closing positions that they can no longer maintain amid falling prices and rising margin requirements.

The most illustrative example is Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The company reported losses of $3.8 billion, of which $777 million occurred in just one day. The main source of losses was long positions in BTC.

In accordance with accounting rules, digital assets are subject to revaluation at current market prices, which led to the formation of an unrealized “paper” loss of $17.4 billion. Over the past year, Strategy shares have fallen by 68%, and after the earnings release they declined by an additional 3.1% in post-market trading.

Let us recall:

Strategy owns 713,502 BTC, acquired for approximately $54.3 billion at an average price of about $76,000 per coin. MSTR shares have fallen more than 70% from their July 2025 peak levels and 15% since the beginning of 2026.

In 2024–2025, hundreds of companies attempted to replicate the Strategy model, and institutional investors, including pension funds, began to view cryptocurrencies as an acceptable element of investment portfolios. As a result, 11 US state pension funds acquired nearly 1.8 million MSTR shares and are now suffering significant losses together with the underlying asset. Ten of them lost about 60% of the value of this position.

Let us recall:

• The so-called Crypto Treasuries pose a direct threat not only to individual portfolios but to the entire crypto market, since such reserves can be instantly moved from a holding mode into a selling phase. The market has not previously faced a comparable volume of potential supply.
• The launch of spot ETFs strengthened the speculative component of BTC and sharply increased its correlation with equity indices. In particular, correlation with the S&P 500 approached the level of 0.50. Since late November, bitcoin funds have shown some of the largest one-day capital outflows, three of which occurred over the last ten days of January. The next phase of decline may trigger mass bankruptcies of miners.
• The crypto euphoria fueled by Trump’s political rhetoric has subsided. Investors are switching to precious metals as more stable long-term assets, which became one of the factors behind the renewal of highs in gold and silver. At the same time, work on key legislative initiatives regulating the crypto industry in the US has effectively been frozen.
• The continued decline of BTC is putting pressure on a broader range of markets, including gold and silver, as corporate treasuries and speculative funds are forced to reduce risk by selling profitable positions in tokenized futures.

The decline is accelerating amid shrinking liquidity and the exit of institutional players from the derivatives market. Expectations that the Trump administration will be able to stabilize the situation are practically absent.

The current dynamics once again demonstrated that both speculative trading and accumulation of bitcoin as a reserve asset are high-risk strategies. Operations with an unsecured digital currency have shown their vulnerability under conditions of market stress.

According to estimates by the Kalshi platform, the probability of BTC falling below the $60,000 level is about 75%.

We hope that our readers, thanks to prudent money management, went through this situation with minimal losses. The optimal position now is to stay out of the market.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!