The US-Venezuela conflict increases pressure on oil

XTI/USD

Key zone: 57.50 - 59.00

Buy: 58.50 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 60.00-61.50; StopLoss 57.80

Sell: 57.00(on a confident breakout of the 57.50 level); target 55.50-53.50; StopLoss 57.70

The US administration has once again demonstrated that the security of oil supplies remains vulnerable even under relatively comfortable global supply conditions. Specifically, the current correction in the oil market was triggered by the detention by US authorities of a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker in a Venezuelan port.

This is the second such incident in the last two weeks, confirming the US's tough stance on Venezuelan oil exports subject to sanctions. Donald Trump further stated that the US Coast Guard is currently pursuing a third similar tanker in international waters.

Logistics disrupted, but market reaction muted

The logistics infrastructure in the Caribbean has been effectively destabilized, with oil shipments from Venezuelan ports virtually halted. At the same time, the global oil balance remains relatively stable due to high reserves and stable supplies from non-OPEC countries, which is holding back a large-scale price reaction.

The market reacted to the US actions cautiously rather than speculatively. WTI futures for immediate delivery rose by about 2.2%, while Brent added about 2.17%. Even such moderate dynamics indicate the sensitivity of prices to the risks of supply disruptions, but do not signal the beginning of a sustained bullish momentum.

Confiscations and legal uncertainty

According to Trump's statements, this is not a case of theft or military trophies, but of lawful confiscation. Oil seized in this way can be sold on the market or added to US strategic reserves. The tankers themselves are not subject to return or compensation.

By stopping the tankers, the US is effectively removing from the market raw materials that, in its interpretation, are linked to violations of the sanctions regime. For Venezuela, already under pressure from years of sanctions and chronic underinvestment, this creates an additional set of legal and logistical constraints. The negative impact on oil refineries focused on heavy oil grades is becoming virtually inevitable.

Key issue for the market

For investors and traders, it is not the individual detained tanker that is important, but the emerging market imbalance. Tighter enforcement of sanctions increases uncertainty about how much Venezuelan oil can be reliably supplied to the global market and at what prices.

The baseline scenario assumes that prices will remain within a range with a moderate geopolitical premium. No significant reduction in total global oil exports is expected in this scenario. WTI and Brent are finding support on declines, but without the emergence of positive fundamental factors, growth remains limited.

Risk scenario and liquidity factor

An alternative, riskier scenario involves further escalation of US actions or retaliatory measures that could affect shipping routes, transport insurance, or the availability of freight for Venezuelan oil.

Additional attention should be paid to holiday market conditions with reduced and unstable liquidity. In such conditions, speculative capital will actively react to any new information from the conflict zone, amplifying short-term price movements.

These factors will remain relevant after the end of the year, as the Maduro regime shows no willingness to abandon the confrontation.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!