The Echo of Davos: the global market is losing stability

BTC/USD

Key zone: 94,000 - 97,000

Buy: 97,500 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 100,000-102,500; StopLoss 96,500

Sell: 93,500 (on a pullback after retesting the 96,000 level) ; target 90,000-85,500; StopLoss 94,500

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio stated that the current monetary order has entered a phase of breakdown. The reason is the declining ability of governments to control debt growth and maintain long-term financial balance.

Dalio, who traditionally recognizes no authorities, directly points to the loss of trust between the United States and key creditors. Treasury bonds and fiat currencies are no longer perceived as unconditionally safe assets — both by institutional investors and by state structures. At the same time, the United States continues to actively increase the issuance of Treasuries, despite the gradual fading of international demand.

Dalio described the current situation as a “loop of mutual discomfort”: the issuer needs financing, while buyers no longer want to bear this risk.

It is indicative that the threats of new tariffs by the Trump administration against the EU, against the background of U.S. territorial claims to Greenland, were temporarily restrained precisely by financial mechanisms rather than by political agreements. This underscores that the levers of influence are shifting from the diplomatic sphere to the financial one.

It is in this context that last year’s favorites became gold and cryptocurrencies, while central banks are increasingly considering ways to reduce dependence on fiat currencies and sovereign debt.

Diversification of dollar dependency risk

According to Dalio, investors of any capital scale must diversify currency risks: in a balanced portfolio he recommends holding 5–15% in gold. Large capital is already using Bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold, and the hedging logic has changed: this is no longer a reaction to a crisis, but a mandatory structural element of risk management.

With the growth of the ETF market and the narrowing of trading spreads, Bitcoin has approached parameters that make it an acceptable asset for institutional and even monetary regulators. Nevertheless, mass inclusion of digital assets into official reserves has not yet occurred — in most countries there is still no full legal and operational framework.

The most notable precedent was the initiative of the Czech National Bank (ČNB). Its head publicly stated the intention to invest up to ~5% of reserves in Bitcoin to diversify and reduce dollar dependency. There is insider information that test purchases may already have been carried out, and a multifactor analysis of their effectiveness is currently underway.

In March 2025, a project to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile for other digital assets was presented in the United States. This is not yet a classical inclusion into currency reserves, but a clear signal: U.S. state structures view BTC as an element of a long-term financial strategy.

Additionally, it is worth noting that in countries under sanctions pressure, cryptocurrencies are already actively used to bypass the dollar financial infrastructure. First and foremost, this refers to the use of stablecoins such as Tether in cross-border settlements. Only a few steps remain until the official recognition of these practices.

So what is the result?

Even a limited shift toward crypto assets by state structures signals a potential long-term decentralization of dollar dominance. If at least several major central banks begin real reserving of Bitcoin or other digital assets, this will lead to the following effects:

• a decline in structural demand for Treasuries;
• an increase in the premium for dollar risk;
• an expansion of the share of alternative assets in intergovernmental settlements.

The growing participation of state players is capable of:

• increasing the institutional liquidity of crypto markets;
• reducing spot volatility due to “deeper” large orders;
• stimulating the emergence of new reserve assets outside the major currencies.

The key point: any real purchases of crypto assets by central banks are a strong bullish signal — not speculative, but fundamentally sustainable. Such events require constant monitoring, because it is they that shape long-term trends, not short-term news noise.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!