2025 results: the commodity market is tired of speculative logic

The year 2025 became a clear example of deep trend divergence in commodity markets. Throughout the year, the U.S. dollar acted not merely as a currency factor, but as a key filter through which the market reassessed the value of commodity assets.

Contrary to the classical rule of synchronized commodity movement, the market ultimately split into two distinct regimes:

• energy commodities (oil and gas) remained under pressure from the physical balance of supply and demand;
• precious metals (gold and silver) demonstrated growth driven by macroeconomic and political risks.

This dynamic showed that the commodity market has ceased to function as a single asset class and has begun responding to different groups of factors.

The key background of the year was the weakening of the U.S. dollar and a gradual shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. The market moved away from the “higher for longer” rate scenario toward expectations of future monetary easing, directly influencing investor behavior in commodity assets.

For gold and silver, a weak dollar became a strong growth driver. For oil and gas, the currency factor proved secondary and was unable to offset weak demand and excess supply issues.

Energy Markets: Fundamentals Dominate

The oil market (Brent/WTI) spent most of the year under pressure from supply surpluses, sluggish demand, and the gradual transformation of OPEC+ policy.

The gas market was far less sensitive to the dollar: in the U.S., gas price dynamics were primarily driven by weather conditions, inventory levels, production, and LNG exports. At the same time, an indirect link to oil remained — through linked contracts and volumes of associated gas in oil production.

U.S. Policy as a Source of Instability

An additional source of instability was U.S. economic and trade policy:

• tariffs and threats of trade conflicts;
• aggressive sanctions rhetoric;
• conflicts surrounding individual commodity suppliers, including Iran and Venezuela.

Energy markets interpreted these factors as risks to global growth, while precious metals markets viewed them as arguments in favor of capital protection. As a result, the same geopolitical events pressured oil prices while supporting gold and silver.

Geopolitics repeatedly triggered volatility spikes but rarely formed sustainable trends without confirmation of real physical shortages. Rising uncertainty failed to support energy markets but reinforced demand for safe-haven assets.

A Key Lesson for Traders

For traders, this period delivered a fundamental lesson: the same logic cannot be applied to different segments of the commodity market, even if they react to the same news.

The resulting picture is as follows:

• the commodity market has become fragmented;
• the dollar and Fed expectations shape the overall fundamental backdrop;
• oil and gas trade based on physical balances, not informational noise;
• gold and silver price in any form of uncertainty;
• geopolitics affects volatility but rarely alters trends without data confirmation.

These principles remain relevant in the first quarter as well.

Baseline Outlook Ahead

For oil and gas, the baseline scenario remains moderately bearish. The market has already priced in the weakness of 2025 and now requires either a clear supply deficit or an acceleration in demand. The EIA continues to project lower average prices.

A sharp escalation of trade conflicts or force majeure events could affect supply stability. Physical flows of heavy crude remain particularly vulnerable: pressure on Venezuela forces refineries to seek substitute grades, potentially altering price spreads between grades even if Brent and WTI prices remain stable.

For gold, the probability of maintaining a bullish trend remains high.

Silver continues to offer upside potential, though its correction risk is higher than that of gold. Any news related to supply constraints, regulatory limits, or industrial demand could further activate the speculative component of the market.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!