Gold is not ready to resume its rally

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,650.00 - 4,750.00

Buy: 4,850.00 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 5,100-5,200; StopLoss 4,750.00

Sell: 4,600.00 (after retesting 4,750); target 4,350.00; StopLoss 4,700.00

The historic rally in gold and silver prices could resume if the United States and Iran reach a genuine peace agreement. During the conflict, gold price swings remained relatively restrained, moving inversely to fluctuations in oil prices and the U.S. dollar.

Let’s recall:

Gold and silver prices reached record highs in 2025: spot gold surged 66%, while spot silver jumped 135%. However, the market became significantly more volatile at the beginning of 2026. Silver futures experienced their sharpest one-day decline since the 1980s in late January. Gold lost more than 10% from its January peak.

• Since the Middle East conflict began in February 2026, gold’s role as a traditional “safe haven” has become less clear. Several factors that previously supported the rally are now under pressure — including the possibility of higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and position unwinding by traders.
• Precious metals have shown a strong correlation with equities due to concerns over inflation and rising interest rates. In March 2026, when equities declined, investors holding gold were able to offset part of their losses.
• Gold entered a state of “chronic” overbought conditions. This encouraged dealers to lock in profits while the market moved into consolidation. Traders began selling their most profitable assets.
• Large institutional players continue closing options and other positions opened last year to hedge sector-specific, logistical, and political risks.

What does this mean in practice?

Physical silver supply remains constrained, while demand from green technologies and artificial intelligence stays elevated. Gold, meanwhile, is gradually losing the confidence of large institutional capital. This creates a tense supply-demand balance.

If the U.S.–Iran conflict is resolved, silver could benefit from improving economic sentiment, stronger industrial demand, and a renewed appetite for risk assets. If negotiations fail, gold may once again become the primary defensive asset.

The fundamental factors that supported silver’s rally in 2025 remain in place, but for now the market still lacks a fresh and powerful bullish catalyst.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!