Chaos instead of strategy

EUR/USD

Key zone: 1.1650 - 1.1800

Buy: 1.1800 (on a confirmed break of 1.1750) ; target 1.2000; StopLoss 1.1740

Sell: 1.1650 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 1.1500; StopLoss 1.1720

The past week has exposed systemic problems and a critically low level of logic in decision-making by the administration of the 47th President of the United States.

Attempts to simultaneously negotiate and escalate pressure have led to the exact opposite outcome — an intensification of the conflict and rising uncertainty.

Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran discussed details of potential negotiations, but the outcome was negative: Iran officially refused a second round and withdrew from the agreement on “limited commercial transit” through the Strait of Hormuz.

By Saturday, at least three commercial vessels had already been attacked, and security guarantees had effectively ceased to exist.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric is adding to the chaos. Within a single day, statements shift dramatically — from threats to destroy Iran to declarations of a ceasefire, from promises of a “permanently open” Strait of Hormuz to its de facto blockade.

Such inconsistency points not to a strategy, but to an urgent attempt to find an exit from the conflict that can be framed as a political victory.

Within 24 hours, Trump published 58 messages — ranging from claims of progress on Iran to attacks on the media and a return to the topic of the 2020 election. This reflects a high level of political pressure and an effort to maintain control over the narrative.

Key pressure factors:

• Trump’s desire to resolve the Iran issue as quickly as possible before large-scale congressional investigations and potential impeachment procedures begin.
• The launch of hearings in the Senate Banking Committee on Kevin Warsh’s candidacy for Fed Chair. Until a decision is made, Jerome Powell remains in place, complicating the administration’s goal of lowering rates ahead of the election.
• Political risk: a prolonged war, high gasoline prices, and inflation could become decisive factors in a Republican defeat in the November congressional elections.

Additional instability comes from contradictions within the U.S. financial bloc.

Without a deal with Iran, it is impossible to stop its nuclear program or, more critically for U.S. domestic politics, restore free navigation. Meanwhile, the strait declared “open” remains de facto closed.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opposes restoring a general license for Russian oil exports.
• At the same time, Trump extends the state of emergency, while OFAC issues License 134B, effectively allowing operations with Russian oil until mid-May.

Such conflicting policies create a situation where the market cannot understand Washington’s real intentions, leading to increased volatility.

The U.S. finds itself in a strategic deadlock:/p>

• A lack of strong response signals weakness, while escalation could completely derail negotiations that carry political significance.
• Without an agreement with Iran, it is impossible to limit its nuclear program or restore full maritime traffic. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, formally declared “open,” remains effectively blocked.

The consequences are already evident:

The longer the strait remains closed, the higher fuel prices rise in the U.S., increasing domestic political pressure.

The energy shock threatens Europe’s economic recovery: rising energy costs feed into inflation through logistics and production costs.

Over 50 days of conflict, the global market has lost more than 500 million barrels of oil, with total economic damage exceeding $60 billion. Reduced production in the Persian Gulf has already led to shortages of aviation fuel and refined products.

The market is reacting accordingly: pressure on the dollar is increasing, and investors are preparing for a scenario of prolonged instability. Even temporary statements about reopening the strait do not change the overall picture — confidence in de-escalation remains low.

The current situation is not a path to peace, but an escalation of chaos driven by political inconsistency. Markets are losing faith in a quick compromise and are pricing in long-term consequences. Even if active hostilities end soon, restoring infrastructure and logistics will take years, meaning pressure on energy markets and the global economy will persist.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!