Three earnings reports - one risk

NQ100

Key zone: 29,300 -29,800

Buy: 30,000(on strong positive fundamentals); target 31,500; StopLoss 29,500

Sell: 29,000 (on a pullback following a retest of 29,500); target 27,500; StopLoss 29,400

Amazon, Apple, and Coinbase will test investors' confidence in AI investments, the stability of consumer demand, and the cryptocurrency business. For the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin, the decisive factor will be not only whether companies meet forecasts, but also whether they can justify investors' elevated expectations.

Amazon and Coinbase's earnings reports, scheduled for October 29 after the U.S. stock market closes, could change how investors assess risks in the technology and cryptocurrency sectors. Apple will release its results on November 2, providing another benchmark for evaluating consumer demand. These releases form a broader market scenario, but each affects a different source of investment risk.

A quick recap:

The main threat to buyers is not necessarily weak financial performance. Even an earnings beat can trigger selling if management guidance disappoints or fails to justify current company valuations. For the Nasdaq 100, Amazon and Apple's earnings outlooks matter most, while for the cryptocurrency sector, the key factors are trading activity and Coinbase's ability to monetize the digital asset market.

Amazon: Revenue Growth No Longer Guarantees a Rally

Third-quarter consensus estimates call for Amazon revenue of $202.2–202.3 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 12.2–12.3%. The earnings-per-share forecast stands at $1.96–1.97. According to IG estimates based on LSEG data, AWS revenue could reach $45.6 billion, while the company's EBITDA could total $53.6 billion.

The holiday season traditionally supports Amazon's sales, so strong third-quarter results do not guarantee a positive stock reaction. Weak revenue or operating income guidance for the end of the year could outweigh an earnings beat.

Coinbase: Will Crypto Market Monetization Recover?

Analysts expect Coinbase to report quarterly revenue of approximately $1.21 billion and a loss of around $0.23 per share. By comparison, a year earlier the company generated $1.87 billion in revenue and earned $1.44 per share.

Potential positive surprises include:

• Revenue significantly exceeding $1.21 billion.
• Growth in subscription and services revenue.
• A reduction in operating expenses relative to revenue.

Apple: A Test of Consumer Demand

Consensus estimates call for revenue of approximately $113.38 billion and earnings per share of around $1.98. Compared with revenue of $102.47 billion a year earlier, the forecast implies growth of approximately 10.65%.

The main indicator is iPhone sales. According to UBS estimates, revenue from this segment could reach approximately $56 billion, compared with market consensus of $56.2 billion. Even a small deviation from expectations could affect assessments of consumer demand resilience and the outlook for major technology companies.

For the Nasdaq 100, Apple's report matters beyond the company's own performance: it will help determine whether a broader group of technology leaders can continue sustaining earnings amid elevated market expectations.

Four Scenarios for the Nasdaq 100 and Cryptocurrency Market

• Strong Amazon and Apple results. Confirmation of resilient corporate investment and consumer demand would create conditions supportive of the Nasdaq 100, especially if U.S. Treasury yields do not begin rising sharply.
• Strong Amazon and weak Apple results. Capital rotation could accelerate toward cloud computing and AI infrastructure, while shares of companies dependent on consumer spending could come under pressure.
• Weak Amazon and strong Coinbase results. COIN could diverge from the technology index. However, cryptocurrency market resilience would depend on Bitcoin, liquidity, and market participant activity, not solely on the exchange's earnings report.
• Weak results from all three companies. Doubts about returns on AI investments, weakening consumer demand, and declining cryptocurrency activity could accelerate the reduction of positions in risk assets.

So What Is the Outcome?

For the Nasdaq 100, the key signal will be the combination of actual results and management guidance. For Bitcoin, Coinbase's report will be only one factor: without confirmation from liquidity and demand, it does not provide an independent basis for buying.

Beating consensus estimates is not, by itself, a trading signal. After the releases, traders should assess price reactions and trading volumes, business prospects, and the relative strength of assets. If strong results fail to produce sustained price gains, this may indicate inflated expectations and an elevated risk of correction.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!