Forcing peace or the “Maduro syndrome”

XBR/USD

Key zone: 78.00-80.00

Buy: 81.50(on a confident breakout of the 81.00 level); target 84.00-85.50; StopLoss 80.80

Sell: 78.00(on a strong negative fundamental); target 75.50-73.50; StopLoss 78.70

Financial markets are attempting to stabilize following Donald Trump’s statement on continuing the military operation in the Middle East “until all necessary objectives are achieved.” A 3–4 week horizon for the active phase is already perceived as the base-case scenario. The escalation of the conflict is putting pressure on risk assets while simultaneously supporting oil, gold, and the U.S. dollar.

Recall:

The key U.S. claims against Iran are related to accusations of armed and financial support for terrorism, which is interpreted as a violation of international law and a threat to Washington’s allies. Tehran’s nuclear developments are considered an additional risk factor. The elimination of these threats has been declared as part of a broader regional stabilization strategy.

Encouraged by the experience of pressure on Venezuela, Trump proposed to Tehran the so-called “Maduro option.” However, the diplomatic scenario did not materialize, and the conflict moved into a military phase.

The escalation has already affected neighboring states and is increasing turbulence in global markets.

• Fuel prices have risen by 14–25%.
• Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil and gas supplies, has effectively stopped.
• In Europe, natural gas prices surged sharply after production was suspended by QatarEnergy.
• A major Saudi Aramco refinery was attacked and temporarily halted processing for security reasons.
• Iraq reduced production at the Rumaila field by 700 thousand barrels per day and additionally suspended 460 thousand barrels per day at West Qurna-2.
• The UAE reported a major fire at the Fujairah refinery caused by drone debris.
• The International Energy Agency announced its readiness to deploy strategic oil reserves to stabilize the market.

The slowdown in maritime logistics increases the risk of storage overflow in the region, potentially leading to additional production cuts.

Saudi Aramco is considering increasing shipments through the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, located outside the Persian Gulf basin. This is due to dozens of vessels being blocked as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Normally, the bulk of the company’s exports passes through Persian Gulf ports. However, the current situation has caused congestion and shipping restrictions. At the same time, Saudi Aramco has a pipeline with a capacity of 5 million barrels per day connecting eastern fields with the Red Sea coast, allowing partial diversification of supply routes.

At the market open, the absence of continued oil price growth after the initial spike triggered a short-term surge in risk appetite—equity indices rose sharply. However, during the session, the strengthening bullish momentum in oil provoked a second wave of risk-off flows. Concerns are growing over a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In the event of extended escalation, a U.S. ban on Iranian oil exports cannot be ruled out, which could lead to accelerated price growth—the most pessimistic estimates allow for a range of $100–120 per barrel.

There is a view in the market that a sharp spike in oil prices could act as a restraining factor for the U.S. administration. However, until critical levels are reached, this mechanism is unlikely to influence strategic decisions.

Until tensions ease, any trading operations remain extremely risky. The volume of speculative capital in the market is high, and volatility is increasing. Entering positions is justified only under strict risk control and after thorough fundamental assessment of the situation.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!