The Fate of BTC or why money is not the main thing

BTC/USD

Key zone: 63,500 - 71,500

Buy: 68,500 (on a confident breakout of the 67,500 level) ; target 73,500; StopLoss 67,500

Sell: 62,500 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 57,500-55,500; StopLoss 63,500

Investment capital flows only where legal protection is ensured. The current dynamics of digital assets are determined not so much by speculative factors as by the level of transparency and strictness of regulation, primarily by decisions made in Washington.

Over the past year, the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system has intensified: institutional banks, public companies, and governments are increasingly considering them as a payment instrument and a store of value. However, the absence of clear and strict regulatory rules continues to restrain both retail investors and long-term institutional capital.

Capital flows indicate a gradual convergence in the perception of equities and cryptocurrencies as interchangeable diversification instruments.

For example, until the end of 2024, both segments demonstrated synchronized dynamics: positive sentiment in the equity market was accompanied by inflows into digital assets. In 2025, this relationship disconnected—retail investors accelerated allocations into equities while simultaneously reducing participation in the crypto market.

The unstable correlation between retail investor activity and altcoin capitalization confirms a change in the structure of demand. Investors began reallocating capital between segments instead of simultaneously increasing positions. The key factor is the deficit of trust in the crypto industry, which is perceived as a more significant risk than the potential decline of the equity market.

At present, national and regional regulators are actively using lawsuits and enforcement measures. As a result, crypto exchanges, token issuers, and custodial services operate under conditions of elevated legal uncertainty. For institutional participants, the primary risk is associated not only with volatility but also with the possibility of falling outside the regulatory framework.

It is precisely the formation of a clear legislative framework in the United States that can become the key driver of capital inflows and sustainable market growth.

• The adoption of the comprehensive Genius Act package could change investor attitudes toward digital assets as early as the second half of the year. This concerns not short-term price drivers but the elimination of systemic legal uncertainty.
• After Congressional approval, the crypto industry will receive transparent operating rules. The law will provide clarity of oversight, reduce the practice of regulation through judicial pressure, accelerate the development of tokenization, and simplify institutional investor participation.

The Genius Act has already passed the House of Representatives; however, its progress in the Senate has slowed. Lawmakers maintain disagreements on a number of issues remaining after the adoption of the CLARITY Act, signed by Trump back in July.

The conflict intensified in January 2026, when Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew support for one version of the bill. This decision initiated a new stage of negotiations, including closed-door meetings involving representatives of the White House. Later, Armstrong reported progress in discussions; however, a final agreement has not yet been reached.

The experience of spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 is illustrative. After the removal of key regulatory barriers, such funds attracted tens of billions of dollars in net capital inflows within the first year of operation alone. The adoption of a comprehensive legislative package could amplify this effect, extending it to asset tokenization, custodial solutions, and trading infrastructure.

And what is the result?

The extreme volatility of the 2020–2023 period, which attracted massive speculative capital, has significantly declined. Cryptocurrencies retain their place in investment portfolios; however, they are no longer viewed as the primary instrument of speculative profit. Large capital maintains a neutral stance and is waiting for the regulator’s decision, while only the most aggressive speculators risk disturbing the price.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!