Silver steps out of the shadows

XAG/USD

Key zone: 78.00 -83.00

Buy: 84.50 (on a confident break of 83.50); target 86.50-87.50; StopLoss 83.80

Sell: 76.50 (on strong negative fundamentals); target 73.50; StopLoss 77.20

The military conflict in the Persian Gulf has temporarily shifted investor attention away from precious metals toward energy resources and fertilizers. However, the current decline in gold and silver prices represents a correction rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.

Reminder:

Gold has traditionally remained a more “market-driven” instrument with a high share of speculative capital, as it is активно used for risk hedging. Silver, by contrast, has a stronger industrial component, where real demand plays the key role. In the classic model, silver follows the lead of its “big brother” — gold, but the current situation shows a shift in this dynamic.

The key driver is China, which has sharply increased metal imports. According to customs statistics, purchases exceeded 790 tons in January–February (including about 470 tons in February), and in March imports rose to more than 836 tons. However, not only volumes matter — the market structure itself is changing.

Previously, imports of silver concentrate were considered unprofitable in terms of price impact. Now, there is a sharp increase in deliveries of refined bullion. The reasons include arbitrage opportunities, shortages of physical metal, and the redistribution of flows through Hong Kong and Shenzhen. This signals a transition from a raw-material model to actively covering domestic shortages.

Demand in China is driven by four key factors:

• Industry. Silver is deeply integrated into the production chain of solar panels. Expansion of capacity and growth in the PV sector reinforce structural demand.
• Investment and retail segment. With gold becoming expensive, silver turns into a more accessible alternative for private investors, forming a “people’s” safe-haven asset and increasing volatility.
• Jewelry and small bars. As gold prices rise, part of the demand naturally shifts to silver. This factor increases intraday volatility and makes imports sensitive to domestic premiums.
• Regulatory and logistics factors. Licensing systems and trade restrictions make the market sensitive to China’s policies, while the direct impact of U.S. tariffs remains limited due to the small share in concentrate imports (around 1.3%).

What’s the bottom line?

Donald Trump’s Iran-related actions negatively affect the precious metals market, but also reinforce the case for moving away from dollar-denominated assets into more reliable alternatives.

Silver maintains a strong fundamental base and remains one of the most attractive metals in 2026.

At the same time, market dynamics have shifted away from the speculative phase: panic is over, but a stable upward trend has not yet formed. Under current conditions, the optimal strategy is measured entries in the $80–85 range and continuous monitoring of Chinese demand as the key driver.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!