New trend: capital logistics crisis

EUR/JPY

Key zone: 183.50 - 185.00

Buy: 185.30 (on a decisive break of 185.00); target 187.50; StopLoss 184.70

Sell: 183.50 (on a strong negative fundamental) ; target 181.50-180.00; StopLoss 184.20

The military conflict is already directly threatening capital flows from the Gulf countries. Even if the region’s long-term stability formally remains intact, the financing needs of these countries may significantly reshape the structure of the global financial market. Strikes on energy infrastructure are no longer just geopolitics — they represent a full-scale systemic risk.

Reminder:

The leading GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have long become a key element of the global financial system. Over the past four years, their combined current account surplus has exceeded $800 billion.

Over the past 5–7 years, sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf have been one of the main sources of global liquidity:

• large-scale investments in technology companies;
• major infrastructure investments in Europe and Asia;
• active expansion into African markets;
• rapid growth of private equity and venture capital segments.

What is changing now

Any shifts in global capital flows are occurring at a time when the global economy is already facing serious challenges: rising budget deficits in developed countries and the need to refinance debt are forcing governments to increase bond issuance.

This could become a key macro trend for traders and investors in 2026–2027.

In fact, the market is no longer dealing with a “risk of war,” but with the war itself. And the main threat now is not oil (its production will recover in the long term), but a potential outflow of capital from the Gulf countries.

Any regional conflict automatically changes the budget structure: spending on defense, infrastructure protection, insurance, and logistics security increases. This means that funds previously directed toward foreign investments begin to remain within the region. If the region is perceived as a war-risk zone, capital starts seeking safer destinations.

How the market reacts

The market is now reacting not to the risk of conflict, but to a real energy shock:

• gas prices in Europe rose by about 35% in one week;
• oil climbed above $100 per barrel and then dropped about 11% in a single day on negotiation news;
• regional countries officially reported to the UN about threats not only to energy but also to financial infrastructure;
• analysts increasingly describe the situation as a full-scale energy security crisis and warn of a new inflation shock.

After strikes on energy infrastructure, the market shifted into a classic risk-off mode combined with an energy shock:

• the US dollar strengthened as a safe-haven asset;
• the euro came under pressure due to rising gas prices in Europe;
• currencies of energy-importing countries weakened significantly.

What may happen next

If the conflict drags on, the following consequences are likely:

• slowdown of investments from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar funds;
• reduction in financing of large international projects;
• liquidation of liquid assets to cover budget spending.

If inflation accelerates again, central banks may postpone rate cuts. In that case, growth stocks will come under pressure again, while gold and oil will receive additional support.

If oil prices remain high for at least 3–4 months, commodity currencies will benefit, while Europe and Asia will be in a weaker position. The main trend is divergence between currencies of energy exporters and importers.

Where capital will seek refuge

If the conflict lasts more than 3–6 months, capital redistribution toward “safe havens” may intensify:

• the United States (USD and Treasuries);
• Switzerland;
• Japan;
• commodity economies outside the conflict zone.

The most vulnerable assets may include growth stocks, markets heavily dependent on Middle Eastern investments, tech venture projects, and European real estate.

At the same time, in the medium term, currency crosses involving the yen may present opportunities, particularly EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Traditionally, the Japanese yen strengthens during crises, but the current situation may differ:

• Japan is highly dependent on energy imports;
• rising oil prices worsen its trade balance;
• the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Therefore, an unusual scenario is вполне possible: the US dollar strengthens simultaneously against both the euro and the yen.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!