BTC and Gold in the same trend: a market anomaly

BTC/USD

Key zone: 94,000 - 97,000

Buy: 97,500 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 100,000-102,500; StopLoss 96,500

Sell: 93,500 (on a pullback after retesting the 96,000 level) ; target 90,000-85,500; StopLoss 94,500

Markets are demonstrating an atypical picture: assets from different categories are rising simultaneously — cryptocurrencies, gold, and the equity market. Such synchronicity is rare and reflects not so much short-term sentiment as structural changes in investors’ attitudes toward fiat currencies and the global financial system. Against this backdrop, discussions have intensified on whether Bitcoin can be viewed as a safe-haven asset on par with gold.

Key facts:

• In January 2026, gold set a new all-time high, exceeding $4,600 per ounce. The rally was driven by geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and expectations of monetary policy easing.
• Gold’s move was supported by fundamental demand for defensive assets: declining real yields, rising geopolitical risks, and the expansion of central bank reserves.
• In 2025, Bitcoin was characterized by high volatility: a rise to local highs around $126,000 was followed by a deep correction and consolidation in the $80,000–90,000 range.

In mid-2025, a pronounced positive correlation was observed between Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 index. However, by the end of the year it weakened and, in some periods, approached zero or turned negative. This indicates that short-term coincidence in BTC and gold dynamics does not imply stable coordination. In most cases, parallel movement is explained by common macro factors — a weaker dollar and liquidity inflows — rather than a direct relationship between the assets.

As gold prices rise, investors begin reallocating capital, and at this point Bitcoin increasingly comes into focus, more often being viewed as “digital gold.” In such phases, gold accumulates more conservative capital, while BTC attracts speculative and institutional flows. At the same time, gold continues to perform the function of a core defensive asset, especially against the backdrop of ongoing reserve accumulation by central banks.

Forecasts suggest that over the next 1–1.5 years, the dynamics of gold and Bitcoin will be driven by global factors: the trajectory of interest rates, the level of global liquidity, and demand for hedging instruments. Scenarios of partial capital reallocation in favor of BTC remain relevant.

If institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to be stimulated, Bitcoin may receive additional fundamental drivers, which in 2026 could lead to a divergence in the trajectories of BTC and gold.

Key takeaways

• BTC and gold should be viewed as different assets with different functions under conditions of uncertainty.
• Bitcoin has strengthened its role in hedging strategies but has not become a full-fledged analogue of gold.
• BTC remains a beta asset, sensitive to liquidity and risk, and tends to rise alongside gold primarily during recovery phases.
• Growth in spot Bitcoin ETF volumes and rising institutional investor interest confirm the strengthening role of BTC as an additional capital protection instrument.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!