Why Cryptocurrencies Are Losing Capital

BTC/USD

Key zone: 90,000 - 93,500

Buy: 94,000 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 97,500; StopLoss 93,000

Sell: 89,500 (on a confident breakout of the 90,000 level) ; target 86,500; StopLoss 90,500

Losses of crypto traders from forced liquidations this year are already estimated at $250–300 billion. Holders of small and mid-sized deposits are massively withdrawing their remaining capital into other asset classes.

The MarketVector index, which tracks a basket of 50 mid- and small-cap tokens, has crashed by almost 70% and is now near the lows of 2020. The strongest pressure occurred during the autumn crisis that began in early October.

After the October collapse, derivatives volumes on small and mid-cap tokens on Hyperliquid dropped sharply. At the same time, prediction markets — Polymarket and others — are showing record activity. Robinhood is aggressively expanding into sports betting, and Gemini is preparing products based on prediction markets.

The marketing hype that a year ago could lift any thematic token — from projects tied to Trump’s spouse to cat memes — has completely evaporated. In 2025, altcoins ignored even fundamentally justified rallies, and after speculative impulses they fell with acceleration. Even the well-capitalized Dogecoin lost 50% from its September high — and not even Musk could change the trend.

The market is evolving: investors no longer buy coins just because “new buyers are coming.” Projects are now analyzed like companies: user base, revenue, and a functioning product have become mandatory minimums.

Competition for retail money has sharply increased. Today, a small trader chooses between:

• zero-day-to-expiry options;
• speculative tech stocks;
• leveraged ETFs;
• prediction markets;
• crypto-derivatives linked to real stocks.

Given thousands of low-liquidity tokens, the fight for retail attention has naturally become much tougher.

Reminder:

Altcoins are the periphery of the market — memes, experimental DeFi projects, governance tokens. They trade on low-liquidity venues, and their prices depend on hype, leverage, and other unstable empirical factors.

There are exceptions — for example, BNB or HYPE, which maintain value due to regular buybacks and supply reduction — an analogue of equity-market buyback mechanisms. Some projects like Zcash showed a temporary spike driven by short-term excitement.

New speculation methods — stock-based funds or options — seem safer and more transparent. A new generation of crypto assets has appeared on blockchain, tracking real companies. These are essentially crypto versions of equity futures, allowing 24/7 trading on market giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla. These products are only at the beginning of their development, but they show where retail speculative capital is flowing.

Altcoins will never disappear — the instinct of chasing quick profit will always find new forms. But the systemic support that lifted the market in previous cycles is no longer present.

Returning to the current setup:

Bitcoin is consolidating in the $91 000–94 000 range ahead of options expiration. Bullish momentum has weakened significantly but has not been fully invalidated. For an upward breakout, the market needs a strong trigger — which may come from the expiration of about $3.4 billion in options. The PUT/CALL ratio stands at 0.91 — almost neutral, and the actual size of contracts being closed is difficult to assess. Therefore, the move may be sharp in either direction.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!