The Monopoly War: Nvidia vs. Google

SP500

Key zone: 6,750 - 6,850

Buy: 6,850 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 7,000-7,050; StopLoss 6,800

Sell: 6,700(on a confident breakout of the 6,750 level); target 6,550-6,500; StopLoss 6,750

Any market monopoly sooner or later enters a phase of weakening. Several dozen of the world’s largest companies continue to fight each other — and this is a normal, healthy process.

Even in Nvidia’s strongest quarterly report, skeptics found early signs of future pressure on margins — and the key threat comes from competition. For the first time in a long period, the leader of the accelerator market has received a real challenge: Meta is considering renting tensor processing units (TPU) from Google.

Alphabet has been developing chips since 2015, and its proprietary TPU models have already been used exclusively inside Google Cloud for 10 years. Now the company is changing its strategy: it is ready not only to lease TPUs but also to sell the chips themselves. The goal is clear — to take at least 10% of Nvidia’s market.

This is not a final contract yet, but the market reaction speaks for itself: Alphabet shares are rising, while Nvidia and AMD stocks are falling. The situation is viewed as a highly probable scenario of shifting power within the AI-hardware market. Moreover, Meta already has a major cloud contract with Google Cloud — about $10 billion over six years — aimed specifically at AI infrastructure.

Why is Meta moving away from Nvidia’s monopoly?

• Risk diversification.
• Overheating of the AI-chip market, shortages of H100/Blackwell, political risks (export restrictions, etc.).
• Reducing dependence on a single supplier and lowering supply-risk.
• Lower total cost of ownership for large LLM clusters, especially when TPUs are integrated into Google’s cloud infrastructure.

Meta is effectively forming a hybrid approach: Nvidia + its own ASIC + Google TPU. If Meta becomes an anchor client, Google will be able to tell the market: “Our hardware is no worse than Nvidia’s, and it is deeply integrated with the cloud.”

This trend goes far beyond a single deal: OpenAI, Apple, Safe Superintelligence, Cohere and others are already testing TPU as a working alternative to Nvidia.

Against this backdrop, Nvidia was forced to publicly emphasize its technical leadership and compatibility with most AI models to calm investors. This is a clear indicator: the era of Nvidia’s near-total monopoly is coming to an end. Large clients are transitioning to multi-vendor architectures and distributing critical workloads across different types of accelerators.

For the AI market, this means movement toward a more competitive, accessible, and diversified infrastructure. But for the stock market, it is a symptom of an internal redistribution of power — which is what triggers corrections: Alphabet’s growth does not offset the pressure on Nvidia and AMD.

There is no fundamentally negative news — it is simply that the monopoly has encountered an opponent equal in scale for the first time.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!