Tariff War, Season III. The U.S. Against Its President

EUR/USD

Key zone: 1.1500 - 1.1550

Buy: 1.1580 (after retesting level 1.16) ; target 1.1700; StopLoss 1.1520

Sell: 1.1480 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 1.1350; StopLoss 1.1550

The Trump administration is reviewing alternative mechanisms in case the Supreme Court rules key elements of the president’s tariff policy unconstitutional. As backup tools, the White House is exploring the use of Sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act, which allow the unilateral imposition of tariffs.

Reminder: the “Liberation Day tariffs” introduced in 2025 became one of the most sweeping reforms of U.S. trade policy in recent decades. The new system affected nearly all imports, implementing a baseline rate of 10% and additional tariffs ranging from 11–100% against countries accused of “unfair” trade practices. In parallel, Trump invoked his authority under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, extending tariffs to metallurgy, automotive manufacturing, and adjacent industries.

A federal appeals court has already deemed a significant portion of these measures unlawful, citing excessively broad and insufficiently justified use of the IEEPA statute by the president. The issue is now before the Supreme Court, which must issue a substantive ruling.

The White House is actively preparing for a potentially unfavorable outcome after justices publicly criticized the concept of global tariffs during recent hearings. The Court’s ruling may take any form: full preservation of tariffs, their cancellation, or partial limitation.

If the Supreme Court does strike down Trump’s tariffs, the consequences for the U.S. economy and global markets will be substantial:

• Loss of the legal foundation for existing trade measures.
• Potential obligation to refund previously paid tariffs — estimated at $750 billion to $1 trillion.
• Sharp deterioration of the federal budget balance, higher deficit, revised Treasury borrowing plans, and pressure on the bond market.
• Changing customs administration procedures, which may take a year or more.

In addition, weaker import-driven inflation could shift market expectations for interest rates. U.S. international partners may reassess their own tariff regimes and strengthen negotiating positions.

Who benefits from tariff cancellation:

• retailers,
• electronics producers,
• companies dependent on cheap imports,
• logistics operators.

Who loses:

• U.S. industrial manufacturers,
• metallurgy,
• sectors benefiting from tariff protection.

For traders, the key factors will be:

• increased volatility — the Supreme Court ruling will be a major macro trigger;
• sectoral imbalance — importers benefit, domestic producers face pressure;
• fiscal risks — tariff compensation may hit the Treasury market.

Further dynamics will depend on Congress and Treasury responses, countermeasures from China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other trade partners, corporate reports on supply chain restructuring, inflation data, and Fed forecasts.

This ruling will not end the trade war — it will open a new stage of the conflict, less arbitrary legally but equally sharp and risky economically.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!