Oil again under geopolitical pressure

XBR/USD

Key zone: 97.50 - 100.00

Buy: 102.00 (after closing the gap); target 105.50-107.50; StopLoss 101.30

Sell: 97.00 (on strong negative fundamentals); target 93.50; StopLoss 97.70

The oil market has once again found itself at the center of geopolitical turbulence. Brent futures rose by more than 2% following strikes by U.S. military forces on facilities in southern Iran. A new reality is becoming increasingly clear: oil is ceasing to be merely a commodity and is increasingly turning into an instrument of political influence, where the price of a barrel is determined not only by the balance of supply and demand, but also by the strategic interests of states.

The energy market is reacting less and less exclusively to fundamental indicators. Against this backdrop, Tehran has already called for preparation for a scenario in which oil reaches $200 per barrel, further increasing tensions surrounding supply prospects.

Reminder:

The escalation in tensions followed after U.S. forces carried out strikes on facilities in southern Iran. According to Washington, the operation was conducted “for self-defense purposes” in the Bandar Abbas area. Reports indicate that two boats intended for mine deployment were destroyed, as well as the position of an anti-aircraft missile system.

The targets of the operation were missile launchers and vessels which, according to the U.S. side, could have been involved in mining the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important routes for transporting oil and liquefied natural gas.

The optimism in financial markets that had emerged earlier amid expectations of a possible end to the conflict quickly faded. Following the new U.S. strikes, markets returned to mixed dynamics: investors are simultaneously assessing the risk of escalation and the likelihood of diplomatic progress.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that Washington is prepared to provide room for diplomacy. Tehran, on the contrary, emphasized that it is still premature to speak of a near-term agreement. Trump also noted that restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place until the negotiation process is completed, while the final coordination of conditions may take several days.

However, the probability of a rapid settlement remains low.

• The Strait of Hormuz continues to remain a key point of risk: approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supplies pass through it.
• Earlier, Brent had fallen below $100 per barrel amid expectations of diplomatic progress, yet key issues — above all the rules governing passage through the strait — remain unresolved.
• Price behavior indicates that the market is not yet prepared to fully exclude the geopolitical premium from quotations.
• The earlier decline of Brent by approximately 7% reflected hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, but the subsequent rise of more than 2% demonstrated how quickly military events return risks into oil pricing.
• Any delay in negotiations or their breakdown will likely once again increase volatility in oil, the U.S. dollar, and safe-haven assets.

What does this mean for the market?

Fundamental factors are no longer working alone. Raw material inventories, industrial growth rates, and demand dynamics still matter, but are increasingly taking a back seat to political decisions and military risks.

Investors, governments, and businesses are forced to consider not only macroeconomic indicators, but also political signals. As long as energy remains an element of global influence, the oil market will likely retain elevated volatility.

Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) warns that prolonged disruptions in the operation of the Strait of Hormuz could add another approximately $20 to the price of a barrel in the short term.

Until a full agreement with Iran is signed, the oil market will react not only to negotiations, but also to every military action, diplomatic statement, or change in the shipping situation in the Persian Gulf.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!