Money Does Not Disappear — It Gets Reallocated

SP500

Key zone: 6,700 - 6,750

Buy: 6,800 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 6,950-7,100; StopLoss 6,720

Sell: 6,700(after retesting the 6,800 level); target 6,550-6,500; StopLoss 6,780

Military conflicts do not destroy capital in the global economy — they change the direction of its movement. For the market, this is not chaos but a structural shift in demand between sectors. For an investor who understands the mechanics of these processes, war is not an emotional factor but a source of recurring market patterns.

While markets traditionally perceive war as a zone of uncertainty, historical experience shows the opposite: during major conflicts, certain industries demonstrate resilience and often outperform broad indices.

Governments expand defense budgets, energy markets face logistical risks and supply shortages, global supply chains are restructured, and demand for security, commodities, and essential goods becomes inelastic. An investor capable of separating analysis from emotion can use these processes to their advantage.

This is not about trading headlines or attempting to predict the outcome of a conflict. The approach is based on models confirmed by decades of market history — from world wars and the Cold War to regional conflicts and modern geopolitical crises.

Core principles for equity investing during wartime

• Monitoring government spending: rising defense budgets, multi-year contracts, and expansion of state orders regardless of the economic cycle.
• Focusing on real shortages rather than informational noise: logistical disruptions, rising energy and commodity prices, tariff pressure.
• Emphasis on sectors with “mandatory demand”: energy, food, security, and critical infrastructure.

Below are equity-market segments that historically either rise or demonstrate increased resilience during wars and periods of geopolitical escalation.

• Defense and Aerospace
  Companies gain direct access to expanded military budgets and long-term contracts, generating stable cash flows during conflicts. Examples: Lockheed Martin; Boeing Defense; Northrop Grumman; General Dynamics; BAE Systems; Elbit Systems
  
• Energy
  Military conflicts increase hydrocarbon supply risks, driving prices higher and supporting margins for energy companies. Exxon Mobil; Chevron; Occidental Petroleum; Venture Global LNG; TotalEnergies
• Cybersecurity
  Geopolitical escalation is almost always accompanied by a rise in cyberattacks and increased investment in protecting digital infrastructure, creating structural demand for the sector’s services. Palo Alto Networks; CrowdStrike Holdings; Fortinet; Zscaler; SentinelOne; Tenable; CyberArk Software
  
• Gold and Gold Mining
  During crises, capital traditionally flows into safe-haven assets. Price growth affects spot gold as well as ETFs and gold-mining equities. SPDR Gold Shares (ETF); Barrick Gold; Newmont Corporation; Kinross Gold
  
• Infrastructure and Construction Materials
  After conflicts end, demand for infrastructure reconstruction rises, supporting manufacturers of machinery, materials, and equipment. Caterpillar; Vulcan Materials; Martin Marietta
  

Additional beneficiaries include:

• Commodity and basic materials producers: metals (iron, copper, aluminum), mineral resources, chemical processing.
• Food and agricultural companies.
• Insurance companies and strategic-capital hedge funds.

Reminder: this material is not an investment recommendation and is intended solely for analytical assessment.

Profiting from equities during wartime is possible not because “war is profitable,” but because equity markets price cash flows, contracts, and expectations — not the moral dimension of events. This is not a bet on catastrophe, but a calculated response to changes in economic structure. This mindset is what distinguishes a professional investor from the crowd.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!