Gold Seeks New Targets: Selling Is Premature

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,150.00-4,250.00

Buy: 4,300.00(on a confident breakout of the 4.250 level); target 4,500-4,650; StopLoss 4,220.00

Sell: 4,100.00(on strong negative fundamentals); target 3,950-3,850; StopLoss 4,180.00

While markets focus on the upcoming Fed decision, investors should pay attention to assets in which the investment component determines most of the value. Gold remains the key such instrument: its rise of more than 60% since the start of the year has resulted from geopolitical turbulence, macroeconomic instability and, above all, the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Capital flows into defensive assets coincide with the course of central banks, which continue to diversify reserves.

According to estimates by the World Gold Council (WGC), the base case assumes further gold appreciation within a broad range, although the market may also deliver unexpected impulses. The price trajectory in 2026 is conventionally divided into three scenarios — from moderate growth to a pronounced correction.

Scenario 1: Moderately optimistic

Markets remain concerned about the prospects of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. A potential reassessment of expectations in the artificial-intelligence sector and declining corporate profits may pressure equity indices.

In such conditions, a weakening labor market, reduced consumer activity and a more notable deceleration of the economic cycle become logical.

If the Fed continues cutting rates, the dollar will weaken, and geopolitical risks remain elevated, gold could gain 5–15% over a 4–6-month horizon.

Scenario 2: Highly optimistic

A more intense scenario implies strengthening global risks: escalation of trade conflicts, regional clashes and a broad decline in confidence. Businesses will cut investments, consumers will reduce spending, and the Fed will likely accelerate policy easing. This will push bond yields lower and increase demand for safe-haven assets.

Under such conditions, gold may rise 15–30% in 2026. The main driver is inflows into gold ETFs.

Scenario 3: Negative

Here it is assumed that the economic and fiscal policies of the Trump administration prove successful, supporting growth and stimulating moderately higher inflation. This could temporarily halt Fed rate cuts or even provoke a hike — although such a step looks politically unlikely.

A stronger dollar will increase market risk appetite, reducing the attractiveness of gold and triggering capital rotation into higher-yielding assets. This would lead to outflows from gold ETFs and a potential 5–20% correction over 6–9 months.

Additional risks

Central-bank demand remains a powerful support factor. However, the use of gold as collateral for loans — particularly in Asia — carries potential risk: in deteriorating economic conditions, forced liquidation of collateral and short-term increases in supply are possible. But from the first warning signs to any meaningful impact on global prices would take at least two to three months.

Visually, the gold market appears vulnerable due to prolonged consolidation, yet there are objectively no fundamental global factors capable of triggering a deep correction at the current moment.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!