Washington vs. Caracas: There Will Be No Oil Shock

XTI/USD

Key zone: 56.00 - 57.50

Buy: 57.50 (on a confirmed break of the 57.00 level); target 59.00-60.50; StopLoss 56.80

Sell: 56.00(on strong negative fundamentals); target 54.00-53.50; StopLoss 56.80

U.S. efforts to tighten control over Venezuelan oil exports are indeed hitting production and key revenue sources of Nicolás Maduro’s regime, but their impact on the global oil market remains limited.

Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted a supertanker carrying Venezuelan crude bound for Cuba. This incident is part of a broader strategy: U.S. military presence in the Caribbean is increasing to levels comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis era.

Washington has made it clear that the detention of the tanker Skipper was not a one-off action but an element of a new operating framework. This is already changing the behavior of shipowners and insurers. At the same time, signs of regional militarization are mounting: Trinidad and Tobago agreed to provide its airports for U.S. logistical support, while Venezuela responded by scaling back gas agreements and accusing its neighbors of cooperating with Washington. An additional factor was PDVSA’s statement about a cyberattack allegedly linked to the U.S.; Reuters sources reported system disruptions and shipping interruptions.

The U.S. has also expanded sanctions pressure, imposing restrictions on members of Maduro’s family, six oil tankers, and affiliated shipping companies.

According to Kpler estimates, Venezuelan oil exports in December will fall to 702,000 barrels per day — the lowest level in six months. Asian buyers are demanding significant discounts, pricing in elevated trade and sanctions risks.

Recall:

More than 60% of Venezuelan oil production consists of heavy, high-viscosity grades. Transporting them requires specialized chemical diluents, which the country must import. Any disruption in the supply of these additives directly threatens production.

A reduction in heavy crude exports could hurt certain consumers, primarily refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Nevertheless, a complete shutdown of Venezuelan production is unlikely.

The Trump administration has preserved a special license for Chevron — the second-largest U.S. oil producer — to operate joint ventures in the Orinoco Belt, which produces around 250,000 barrels per day. Any potential shortage of heavy grades will likely be offset by increased production in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico, where similar crude is produced.

Chevron has already lowered prices for Venezuelan oil supplied to U.S. refineries, further smoothing the impact of restrictions.

The current escalation in U.S.–Venezuela relations is already leading to export declines and pressure on production due to logistical constraints, forcing markets to price in sanctions and military risks. However, this is not a military conflict but a form of coercion aimed primarily at oil exports. Cargo traffic from Venezuela has declined noticeably.

At the same time, the impact on global prices remains weak. The core fundamental backdrop — expectations of oversupply and rising inventories in 2026 — limits upside potential. The “Venezuelan factor” mainly redistributes flows and widens discounts without creating a true shortage.

Oil shows no signs of a sustained rally, and current volatility points to a fragile but still balanced market. Any upward moves should be viewed as technical corrections: there are no fundamental grounds at present for a full-fledged bullish trend.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!