The U.S. Market in Search of Positivity

SP500

Key zone: 6,800 - 6,900

Buy: 6,950 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 7,100; StopLoss 6,880

Sell: 6,750(on a confident breakout of the 6,800 level); target 6,600; StopLoss 6,820

The benchmark index managed to offset nearly a 5% decline thanks to strong corporate earnings, renewed AI optimism, hopes for de-escalation in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and a significant revision of expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, all these factors are now fully priced in.

Consumer activity also offered support: Black Friday kicked off the holiday spending season. According to the National Retail Federation, a record 202.9 million people made purchases during this period. In-store sales rose 3% YoY, and online shopping increased 9%. Visa reports that 45% of Americans used AI tools when making purchase decisions.

Internal market dynamics improved as well. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average climbed to 60%. A noticeable rotation is underway within the index: money is leaving high-tech names and moving into industrials and defense — a clear sign of gradually decreasing risk appetite.

Nevertheless, weak labor market data strengthens investor confidence in a Fed rate cut in December.

On Wednesday, U.S. indices closed mixed:

• S&P 500 −0.2%
• Nasdaq Composite −0.4%
• DJIA unchanged

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.065%, and the U.S. Dollar Index declined to 96.51 — markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a December rate cut by the Fed.

Jobless claims data is becoming a critical driver for the dollar and therefore for NAS100.

Previous reading: 216K (vs. ~222K a week earlier), expectation — ~220K.

Scenarios for NAS100:

• Claims above forecast → labor market cooling → Fed can ease sooner → NAS100 gets support.
• Claims below forecast → labor market strong → easing delayed → pressure on NAS100.

Key thresholds:

• Consensus: ~220K
• <215K: argument against a December rate cut — NAS100 likely declines.
• >230K: higher probability of early easing — NAS100 receives upward momentum.

The current momentum remains positive: S&P 500 futures continued rising on Thursday. We maintain the base case of a medium-term bullish trend; however, a technical correction appears necessary. Otherwise, accumulated pending sell orders above key levels may trigger suddenly — leading to a deeper-than-expected drop. Especially given the absence of a major buyer willing to absorb a sharp market dip right now.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!