QatarEnergy is not ready for war

XNG/USD

Key zone: 2.850 - 3.100

Buy: 3.150(on a decisive break above 3.000); target 3.400; StopLoss 3.080

Sell: 2.800 (on a pullback after retesting 2.95); target 2.650-2.500; StopLoss 2.870

Qatar has suspended plans for a rapid recovery of production at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export complex, following an attack on one of its tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. The decision is adding further pressure to global gas markets, which have already been destabilized by renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and growing concerns over the security of one of the region's most important shipping routes.

Reminder:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts the first decline in global natural gas demand since 2022—down 2% in Europe and 0.5% in Asia. The decline reflects higher gas prices after the Middle East conflict effectively disrupted about one-fifth of global LNG supplies and pushed benchmark gas prices in Europe and Asia well above pre-war levels. Demand in OECD Europe has weakened as increased electricity generation from renewable sources has reduced gas consumption in the power sector.

• Last year, Qatar accounted for approximately 20% of global LNG supplies. The Ras Laffan terminal has been under pressure since early March, when operations were nearly halted following an Iranian drone attack. A subsequent missile strike damaged about 17% of production capacity, with repairs expected to take at least three years.
• After the United States and Iran reached a temporary agreement last month, Qatar had planned to restore most of its LNG production within two months. That plan has now been suspended.
• For security reasons, Ras Laffan will continue operating at reduced capacity. According to vessel-tracking data cited in the report, eleven empty LNG carriers are currently waiting outside the terminal.
• Spot LNG prices in Asia are already more than 80% above pre-war levels. In Europe, benchmark natural gas prices climbed above €50 per megawatt-hour on Thursday for the first time since the United States and Iran reached a temporary peace agreement last month.

What does this mean?

The situation could significantly tighten the global gas market. LNG buyers are entering the seasonal inventory-building period ahead of winter. If Qatar is unable to increase exports in the near term, Europe and Asia may have to compete more aggressively for cargoes from alternative suppliers.

The immediate risk is not only the loss of production volumes but also the erosion of market confidence. Shipowners, insurers, and buyers need proof that the Strait of Hormuz is safe before normal shipping flows can resume. Until then, the global LNG market will remain vulnerable to sharp price swings, limited cargo availability, and a prolonged recovery from the Middle East conflict.

From a technical perspective, the market looks attractive for speculative trading, but it also remains extremely risky for short-term positions.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!