New Conflict in the Caribbean: Standard Commodity Blackmail

XBR/USD

Key zone: 63.50-65.00

Buy: 65.50(on strong positive fundamentals); target 67.50; StopLoss 64.80

Sell: 63.00(after retesting the 64.50 level); target 61.50-61.00; StopLoss 63.70

A potential U.S. military operation against Venezuela and the possible return of American companies to control over local oil fields could flood the market with “fresh” crude and push prices down to $30 per barrel.

Venezuela is one of the world’s leaders in oil reserves, and any interference in its production immediately affects global prices. According to OPEC’s 2024 annual bulletin, the country holds about 20% of the world’s oil reserves, totaling 303.01 billion barrels.

Venezuela’s main resource is the heavy and extra-heavy crude of the Orinoco Belt, unique in density and energy yield. Specialized refineries in the U.S. and Asia are built specifically for these grades, while light shale oil cannot replace them in terms of margins and product output.

Trump plans to use the conflict to overthrow Maduro’s regime and unlock Venezuelan oil exports, ensuring a drop in global prices — under such a scenario, oil could fall to $30 per barrel.

The formal pretext for a military operation has not been announced yet, but the scenario is clear:

• The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the oil-rich Essequibo region — the U.S. has strengthened military cooperation with Guyana, incidents in disputed waters are reported, and temporary moratoriums and warnings have been issued.
• The political crisis following the 2024 elections — Washington accuses Caracas of violating electoral commitments and has periodically tightened sanctions.
• License manipulation — the U.S. has repeatedly changed deal terms for Chevron and other companies, turning permissions into a tool for export pressure.

Five decades ago, Venezuela produced four times more oil than it does today. In the past, the disappearance of a million barrels per day went unnoticed; now, restoring that volume could destroy market balance.

Additional risks:

• Logistical vulnerability — storage facilities, ports, and pipelines are under threat; insurers are already raising premiums.
• Investment illusion — the idea of an “investment boom” after Maduro’s removal is unrealistic: PDVSA’s infrastructure is worn out, service contractors are gone, and recovery would take at least two years.
• Europe’s dependence — after cutting Russian imports, the EU became critically reliant on U.S. oil. If American refineries lose Venezuelan heavy grades, output will drop and European fuel prices will rise.
• Rising Brent risk premium — any escalation (even without direct fighting) will increase freight and insurance costs, creating a shortage of heavy crude.

Lifting sanctions and restoring U.S. corporate presence would lead to an increase in heavy crude supply and moderate downward pressure on Brent over the 6–24 month horizon.

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline demand is at its lowest since 2012, and refinery utilization has fallen to 86%. This makes Venezuelan oil’s return attractive for American refiners — it cheapens the feedstock base and stabilizes diesel spreads.

A military scenario may not materialize if Trump once again applies his trademark “TACO system” (Trump Always Chickens Out) — backing away from tough decisions at the last moment.

Another possibility — Caracas agrees to U.S. demands — looks unlikely given the regime’s political isolation.

For now, everything looks like commodity blackmail disguised as policy: Washington uses the threat of military intervention as leverage over markets and allies.

Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear — any news from Caracas or Washington in the coming weeks will drive global oil price volatility.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!