Metal or Stocks: Which Gold Is More Profitable

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,000.00-4,100.00

Buy: 4,150.00(on strong positive fundamentals); target 4,300 -4,350; StopLoss 4,080.00

Sell: 3,950.00(after retesting the 4.100 level); target 3,800-3,750; StopLoss 4,020.00

The gold market is experiencing its most favorable period in recent decades. The results of Q3 2025 create the impression that the yellow metal is entering a new investment cycle.

According to WGC data, global demand in Q3 reached 1,313 metric tons — a historical record. In monetary terms, global gold purchases amounted to $146 billion, and the average price held at $3,456 per ounce, showing 40% y/y growth.

In October, gold exceeded the $4,400 mark for the first time in history, and even after a technical pullback it consistently holds above $4,100.

Investors are also increasing allocations to gold ETFs — the strongest inflows since 2020. Demand for bars and coins has exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter.

However, the market insists that gold mining companies outperform spot gold in returns.

Below are the companies that traditionally appear in the portfolios of major funds and private investors, and remain in demand under all market conditions. All data is as of September 30.

• Barrick Gold

+207% in Q3

Tickers: NYSE: B, TSE: ABX

The company is considering moving its headquarters from Toronto to the U.S. and shows a successful strategic turnaround. Barrick has focused on key assets, divested non-core businesses, and prioritized free cash flow growth and balance sheet strengthening.

• McFarlane Lake Mining

+341% in Q3

Tickers: MLM (CSE/NEO), MLMLF (OTC US)

The company has substantial experience developing mines in Ontario. The current project is Juby Gold in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, one of the world’s richest gold regions (over 200 million ounces mined in the past century). In September, McFarlane updated its resource estimate to about 1 million ounces; adjacent assets, including the McMillan property, hold significant expansion potential.

• Omai Gold Mines

+650% over 12 months

Tickers: OMG (TSX-V), OMGFF (OTCQB US)

The main growth driver is the development of the Omai mine in Guyana, one of the richest gold regions in South America. In August, the company confirmed 2.1 million ounces of proven reserves and 4.4 million ounces of inferred, including the Wenot open pit and the high-grade Gilt Creek deposit.

Market supply in the gold mining industry is growing much more slowly, major discoveries are rare, and the average timeline from discovery to production is at least 7 years. Therefore, in terms of speed of returns, stocks lose to speculative spot metal and options.

However, in Q4 conditions remain favorable for gold equities:

• gold is up 66% year-to-date;
• the U.S. budget deficit continues to grow;
• geopolitical risks are rising;
• central banks are accelerating reserve diversification in favor of gold.

Given this, an optimal portfolio structure allocates 15% to gold: 5% — physical metal, 10% — shares of gold mining companies, sectoral funds and/or ETFs.

This approach reduces the portfolio’s sensitivity to speculation, and then no market shocks will kill you.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!