Gold: Nobody Is Willing to Take Risks

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,000.00- 4,200.00

Buy: 4,200.00 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 4,400-4,450; StopLoss 4,120.00

Sell: 4,000.00 (on a confident breakout of the 4.100 level); target 3,850-3,700; StopLoss 4,080.00

The yellow metal continues to show volatile and contradictory dynamics. The current market “weakness” of gold is driven by inconsistent signals from the Federal Reserve. Williams stated that policy remains “restrictive,” which the market interpreted as a hint of imminent easing, but subsequent comments from Fed officials in Chicago and Cleveland cooled expectations and increased uncertainty.

Spot gold declined by 0,3%, and December COMEX futures fell by 0,7% to $4052.40. A strong dollar continues to limit gold’s appeal as a safe haven, while shifting expectations regarding rate cuts add additional pressure.

Periodic improvement in global risk appetite and hopes for diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine conflict also reduce demand for safe-haven instruments, including gold. Internal divergences in Fed policy force traders to act more cautiously while awaiting key macro releases — PPI (+0.3% m/m), retail sales (+0.4%), and the core PCE index, which is the Fed’s priority inflation indicator.

These delayed releases will be decisive for XAU/USD dynamics in December.

Bank of America raised its gold forecast for 2026 by 2.3% to $2750 and widened its long-term expectation range to $3000–5000, pointing to several systemic factors: a persistent U.S. budget deficit, geopolitical fragmentation, limited new exploration, continued reserve accumulation by central banks, and weakening global growth.

In Q3, central bank gold purchases increased by 2.1%. China, India, and Turkey are actively building reserves. Physical demand in Asia and the Middle East remains high — especially in the UAE, where premiums reach $18 above spot. This stabilizes XAU/USD near $4000 even amid speculative selling.

Technical picture: gold consolidates above the rising-trend line around $4000; current price compression indicates energy accumulation ahead of a potential impulse move.

• A breakdown below $3960 will open the way for a retest of the $3800 zone.
• A sustained recovery above $4200 will create conditions for growth toward $4400.

Futures trading volume in gold has fallen 17% over the past two weeks — signs of trader indecision ahead of Thanksgiving week.

The short-term view remains neutral: expected range $3960–4120.

The medium-term forecast becomes more optimistic — target zone $4400–4600, as the Fed will inevitably shift to easing in 2026.

The long-term position remains a strategic buy below $4000, consistent with expectations of global liquidity recovery. The current consolidation phase looks like a preparatory stage for a new wave of growth as the trajectory of interest rates becomes clearer.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!