Caution: The “Gold Rush”!

XAU/USD

Key zone: 3,600.00 - 3,680.00

Buy: 3,700.00 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 3,850-3,950; StopLoss 3,620.00

Sell: 3,600.00 (on a pullback after a breakdown of 3,650); target 3,450.00; StopLoss 3,680.00

Gold continues to update historical highs, approaching the $3700 per ounce mark. The nearly 40% growth since the beginning of the year has outpaced the bullish phases of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2007–2009 recession. The reason is the multifactor risk of constant and unpredictable changes in politics and economics.

Today everyone is involved in the “gold rush”: from jewelry buyers at Costco and owners of private vaults in London to institutional and retail traders. Investors traditionally flee into gold as protection from any threats.

There are several key factors:

• Trump’s tariff wars accelerated inflation and increased forecast unpredictability.
• White House pressure on the Fed threatens the independence of the global monetary regulator.
• The dollar showed the worst first half in 50 years.
• Geopolitical and economic risks from military conflicts.

The rally started almost three years ago, when central banks and Chinese investors began actively buying gold. In 2025, they were joined by Western participants massively investing in ETFs backed by physical metal. Since January, assets of such funds in the U.S. have grown by 43%.

An additional impulse is created by expectations of a Fed rate cut: low rates increase the attractiveness of non–yield-bearing assets. By early September, hedge funds had placed 47% of their net commodity capital in “golden” market assets of various types.

A strong dollar and confidence in U.S. economic growth could stop the crazy rally, but there are no reasons for dollar strength yet. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps hitting records, and investors prefer to hedge through non-dollar assets. And gold is the most rational choice for this purpose.

Treasuries yields are falling, dollar demand is weak – these factors support price growth at the beginning of the week amid expectations of central bank monetary policy decisions. Spot gold trades above $3680, and if the $3700 resistance zone is broken, the XAU/USD pair is ready to continue its upward move.

Reminder: at the moment, gold is extremely overbought, so relying on clean technical signals is not advisable. Short-term fundamental analysis is mandatory.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!