Bitcoin: Options Will Save the Situation

BTC/USD

Key zone: 108,500 - 112,000

Buy: 112,500 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 115,000-117,500; StopLoss 111,500

Sell: 108,000 (on a pullback after a retest of the 110,000 level) ; target 105,500; StopLoss 109,000

Bitcoin continues to move within a narrow range of $107,500–115,000, holding its positions for the second consecutive week. During the European session, the price added 1.4% (+2.6% for the week), reflecting a moderate improvement in sentiment amid persistent caution among market participants.

A new upward impulse still lacks volume — traders are waiting for clear confirmation of the trend before opening new long positions. The capital outflow from ETFs totaling $101 million indicates that large investors are not yet ready to actively support the rally. However, there are also no signs of large-scale sell-offs.

Open interest in BTC has reached $50 billion, and today 47,000 options worth a total of $5.1 billion are set to expire. The PUT/CALL ratio = 1.03, indicating a balance between long and short positions — the market remains in a flat range. The most probable closing price of contracts is located near the $114,000 zone, coinciding with the upper resistance boundary.

According to Deribit, which accounts for about 80% of global open interest in crypto options, there has been a sharp increase in volumes at key strike levels. Open interest around $100,000 amounts to approximately $2.17 billion — some traders are betting on a correction toward this level. However, significantly larger volumes are concentrated at strikes of $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000, where over $2 billion is positioned. This suggests that major market participants expect further upward movement or are hedging positions for continued growth. The medium-term trend appears stronger than technical indicators show.

The crypto market was closely watching the release of U.S. inflation data: the September figure came in at 3.0% y/y, reaching this level for the first time since January. The report was weaker than expected, giving the Fed an opportunity to focus on supporting the labor market rather than maintaining high rates. As a result, further dollar weakening and an increase in gold, equities, and commodity currencies can be expected.

Traders remain cautious, hedging risks through options and futures. Meanwhile, mining companies’ debt burden has risen significantly — some producers are shifting toward AI infrastructure and high-performance computing, increasing the sector’s sensitivity to market volatility.

The base scenario remains a continuation of sideways movement with key support near $108,500. To confirm a bullish scenario, a confident breakout above $115,000 is required, while a bearish scenario will become relevant if support at $108,500 is broken.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!