Trump’s Forecasts: Strange, Funny, but Profitable

BTC/USD

Key zone: 106,500 - 109,500

Buy: 110,000 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 113,500-115,000; StopLoss 109,000

Sell: 106,500 (on a pullback after a correction to 109,500) ; target 103,500; StopLoss 107,500

The current U.S. president is expanding his business horizons — his social network Truth Social is entering a new market. In partnership with Crypto.com, the company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announced the launch of the Truth Predict platform, which will allow users to bet on any events — from weather and football to Fed decisions and gold prices.

The project’s partner is Derivatives North America (CDNA) — an American subsidiary registered with the CFTC. All contract settlements will be conducted in Cronos (CRO) tokens, which are part of the Crypto.com ecosystem. After beta testing, Truth Predict will become available to users in the U.S., becoming the first social platform to integrate a prediction market.

As a reminder, prediction markets assess the probability of events where prices are determined by the collective opinion of participants.

The modern stage of their development is linked to blockchain technologies — Kalshi and Polymarket platforms, which set a new industry standard by combining transparency, liquidity, and advanced technology.

In September, the total trading volume on these platforms reached $1.44 billion, with Kalshi surpassing Polymarket for the first time, capturing 60% of market share. In October, Kalshi set a new record by processing 800,000 cryptocurrency transactions in a month.

Kalshi is a licensed, fully CFTC-regulated platform, serving not only retail traders but also large institutional investors who use prediction markets to assess risks related to inflation, Fed policy, and elections.

Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, is a decentralized project built on the Polygon blockchain, known for its high liquidity and minimal regulation. High liquidity and lack of oversight make this platform polarizing among crypto investors, analysts, and bookmakers.

A fresh example of market excitement and “easy money”: during a photo session, Trump and Xi Jinping held a protocol handshake for a full 25 seconds, allowing many fans to profit — bets on the duration of their “friendly contact” were placed on Polymarket. The option “more than 10 seconds” was not the most popular, and as a result, yielded the highest payout.

For Trump, the prediction market is not just another show — it’s a new way to monetize his audience. Truth Social aims to turn its user community into a financial ecosystem where any topic, personality, or event can generate profit.

The shift from opinions and expectations to real financial positions will allow Trump to merge media, finance, and politics into a single ecosystem. In this chaos, Trump may once again come out on top.

However, the Truth Predict project, beyond technical risks, faces a serious challenge: the prediction market is under close — and in Trump’s case, especially close — scrutiny from U.S. regulators.

And betting on Donny’s full regulatory loyalty may not be the safest move for now. We’ll see how this plays out.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!