Traders are losing control of the market

EUR/JPY

Key zone: 186.00 - 187.00

Buy: 187.20 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 188.50; StopLoss 186.60

Sell: 185.80 (on a pullback after retesting 186.50) ; target 184.00; StopLoss 186.40

The U.S. stock market has entered a new era. Price movements are now increasingly driven not by corporate earnings, Federal Reserve decisions, or even macroeconomic data. The primary catalyst has become political statements.

The speed at which political information spreads is beginning to determine market value faster than any analytical method.

Let's recap.

• On April 7, 2025, when journalists asked Donald Trump whether a tariff pause was being considered, he replied that no such option was under consideration. A White House spokesperson also described those reports as false.
• On April 9, 2025, Trump published a short post on Truth Social: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT". Less than four hours later, the White House announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.
• The outcome was unprecedented: the S&P 500 surged 9.5%, while the U.S. stock market recovered nearly $4 trillion in market capitalization almost instantly, offsetting most of the losses from the previous trading days.

Later, the same pattern repeated itself multiple times. Presidential posts began influencing the market faster than earnings reports from the largest corporations, Federal Reserve meetings, or macroeconomic statistics.

But while the market is still reading the posts, algorithms are already buying. Most retail traders learned about the publications only after the primary price move had already taken place. Trading data analysis revealed a surge in call option purchases roughly ten minutes before the announcement of the tariff pause.

This means that professional market participants either had an informational advantage or were using algorithms capable of detecting signals significantly earlier than everyone else. Speed has now become a tradable asset in its own right.

The Truth API service, expected to launch on August 1, will deliver posts from Donald Trump and other popular platform accounts faster than they become available to the broader public. According to the Financial Times, the service will initially cover the platform's ten largest accounts. Subscription fees may reach $100,000 per month, while long-term contracts could reduce the cost to around $60,000 per month.

In other words, a select group of market participants receives information almost simultaneously with its publication, while the vast majority of traders learn about market moves only after the biggest profits have already been made.

This type of uncertainty is fundamentally different from traditional market risks. It cannot be measured using technical indicators. It cannot be incorporated into chart patterns. It cannot be evaluated in advance through corporate financial reports.

Attempting to build an entire trading system solely around politicians' posts is an extremely dangerous approach.

So, what does this mean?

The core value of professional trading has not disappeared—it has changed.

A trader who understands macroeconomics and market mechanics can incorporate any "Trump factor" into their trading system: identify periods of heightened uncertainty, reduce leverage before key political decisions, and use rising volatility as a signal rather than as a surprise.

A trader who merely follows social media posts becomes defenseless the day a post moves the market in the opposite direction.

The market has not become simpler. It has become noisier. And the ability to separate signal from noise remains the most reliable protection for your trades.

Systems similar to Truth API could create a two-tier market where some participants trade presidential posts within milliseconds, while others discover market moves only after the fact. The question is not whether this is fair. The real question is which level of that system you will belong to.

Ask yourself: if tomorrow Donald Trump leaves politics or simply stops posting, what will remain of your trading system?

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!