Successful Purchase: Silver Outpaces Gold Again

XAG/USD

Key zone: 51.50 - 53.50

Buy: 53.30 (on a retracement to 52.00/52.50); target 55.00; StopLoss 52.70

Sell: 51.50 (on a strong negative foundation); target 49.50; StopLoss 52.20

The silver rally in 2025 has exceeded the expectations of even the most optimistic analysts. Its spot price is setting historical highs almost daily: since the beginning of the year, the metal has risen by 79%, while gold has gained about 50%.

Last week, XAG/USD quotes exceeded the $50 level for the first time, and during this morning’s session, the $53 mark was broken — significantly higher than the January 1980 level, when, amid the Hunt brothers’ manipulations, the market tested $50.

The main driver of the current growth is industrial demand for silver used in AI technologies, solar panels, and electronics. These real needs are forming a steady demand that goes beyond purely speculative interest.

After the speculative gold rally triggered by Trump’s “Day of America’s Liberation,” traders were forced to look for more affordable assets with similar dynamics. Today, silver is viewed not only as a capital preservation instrument but also as a strategic raw material. Its price is supported by high demand, limited supply, and rising interest in tangible assets amid inflation and financial market instability.

Demand for physical silver is also growing: premiums relative to futures contracts in New York remain at record highs. London inventories have fallen sharply — a significant portion of the metal was moved to other venues due to Trump’s tariff policies. Since mid-2021, vault volumes have dropped by a third, and control over key reserves has passed to major ETFs. Banks now hold just over 200 thousand ounces compared to 850 thousand in 2019. Some enterprising players are even ready to return the metal back — that is, fly it from New York by air.

Expectations of a Fed rate cut are increasing interest in non-yielding assets. The weakening of the dollar and the decline in Treasury yields are contributing to a re-evaluation of silver’s role as a capital protection tool.

Analysts’ forecasts converge: global industrial demand for silver will grow, while supply will decline. Even the most cautious optimists expect prices in the $80–100 range in the near future. Investors remain positive on both gold and silver, but silver continues to be a more flexible instrument for speculators with limited capital.

Technically, the market is correcting, but it is important for buyers to hold the $50–52.50 range. A repeated breakout of $52 may trigger a new growth impulse toward $53.50, while a drop below $50.50–49.90 will lead to short-term consolidation. Volatility remains high, so risk control is essential.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!