How Trump’s protégé turned the market

BTC/USD

Key zone: 67,500 - 75,000

Buy: 75,000 (on a pullback after retesting the 70,000 level) ; target 80,000-83,500; StopLoss 73,500

Sell: 67,500 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 63,500-61.500; StopLoss 69,000

A single personnel decision by the White House rewrote crypto-market scenarios within a matter of hours. On March 4, 2026, the U.S. administration officially nominated Kevin Warsh — a supporter of digital assets — for the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The nomination has already been sent to the Senate, while the term of the current chairman Powell expires on May 15, 2026.

For markets this event became a de facto signal of a possible shift in the monetary regime. The news triggered a classic trader reaction: “sell the rumor — buy the fact.”

When the first rumors about Warsh’s appointment had just begun to spread, market participants perceived them as a potential risk to liquidity, which provoked a price decline. But after the official confirmation of the event, Bitcoin demonstrated the opposite reaction — a sharp upward impulse.

Earlier in the morning of March 4 the token was trading in the range of $67000–68000, and analysts were discussing the probability of a correction toward $65000. However, at 16:30 Washington time the White House published a short statement: Kevin Warsh was appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve for four years. Within an hour bitcoin broke the $70000 mark, and by the evening reached $73413.

The capitalization of the first cryptocurrency increased by approximately $123 billion in just one day. At the same time a real drama began in the derivatives market. Traders who had bet on a decline were caught by surprise and were forced to close positions at almost any price, strengthening the upward impulse. The volume of liquidations during this short squeeze exceeded $500 million.

Investors are increasingly saying that markets are becoming sensitive to political signals: now any appointment or statement from Washington can erase months of technical analysis and instantly change the market trend.

Investors began to say that markets were becoming puppets in the hands of politicians: now any appointment or any phrase from Washington can wipe out months of technical analysis and force traders to chase a new trend.

Reminder

Kevin Warsh — a former member of the Federal Reserve Board and a representative of the more “market-oriented” camp of economists, who:

• criticized the ultra-loose monetary policy after the pandemic;
• advocated reducing the Fed’s balance sheet;
• allows the possibility of lowering interest rates in the coming years.

Such a combination makes him a highly ambiguous figure for markets of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Why is the crypto market so sensitive to the figure of the Fed Chairman?

There are three key channels of influence.

Global Dollar Liquidity (GDL)

Warsh has repeatedly stated the need to reduce the Federal Reserve balance sheet. Meanwhile the cryptocurrency market grew precisely during the era of quantitative easing programs. If the new course is actually implemented, this may mean a reduction of dollar liquidity and increased pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins.

Interest rates

A number of analysts assume that under the new leadership of the Fed the rate could decline by approximately 100 basis points within a year. For the crypto market this means cheaper capital and a decline in the real yield of traditional instruments, which theoretically may support the growth of BTC.

Political support for the crypto industry

The market reaction will depend on the real actions of the regulator. For now it is difficult to assess the long-term effect, however it is obvious that the number of short-term speculators in the market of large tokens may decrease.

And what is the result?

The very fact that a single personnel decision is capable of changing market dynamics so sharply forces investors to reconsider their strategies.

Previously cryptocurrencies were considered assets weakly connected with political events. Now the situation has changed.

Part of the capital has effectively flowed from traditional safe-haven instruments into digital assets — and the trigger was precisely a political decision.

At the moment the market is reacting not so much to the direction of movement as to the growth of volatility. Investors have to take into account not only macroeconomic indicators — inflation, employment and rates — but also political decisions.

For Bitcoin the coming days will become an important test: whether the asset will be able to hold above the $73 000 level or whether a correction caused by profit-taking will follow.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!