Gold, S&P 500, and BTC: the resilience test

SP500

Key zone: 6,500 - 6,600

Buy: 6,650 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 6,800-6,850; StopLoss 6,580

Sell: 6,500 (after retesting the 6,550 level); target 6,300-6,250; StopLoss 6,570

Classic trading textbooks advise, during periods of geopolitical and economic instability, to move capital into “safe havens,” primarily gold. However, current market practice shows that the old rules no longer work in their pure form.

Some recent examples:

• The banking trust crisis became an ideal environment for cryptocurrency growth. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, investors began seeking alternatives to traditional bank accounts. While the S&P 500 was in a wait-and-see mode, Bitcoin rose approximately 35% in just two weeks, and gold gained about 8%. The market expected central banks to pause policy tightening to stabilize the banking sector.
• In 2024, the market experienced a completely different scenario. After the Bank of Japan raised rates, investors began massively closing carry trade positions with cheap yen. On August 5, the Japanese stock market experienced the largest drop in decades, pulling European and American markets down with it.
• In this context, Bitcoin did not collapse, but it also did not serve as full protection: its growth was only about 3%. When market liquidity leaves and borrowing becomes more expensive, speculative assets lose attractiveness. At the same time, gold rose approximately 9% amid general fear and demand from large capital.
• In 2025, the main source of risk became a new stage of trade conflicts initiated by Donald Trump. The U.S. stock market reacted with declines as investors began pricing in recession risks due to rising prices and possible retaliatory sanctions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar temporarily weakened as concerns about U.S. financial isolation increased.
• In this context, gold again led: the metal traditionally gains when money devaluation risks rise and expectations of rate cuts to support the economy strengthen. When it became clear that new tariffs could weaken the dollar’s position, interest in Bitcoin as a politically neutral instrument also increased — after a few months, cryptocurrency outperformed both gold and the stock market.
• 2026 brought a new crisis, and markets responded in active protection mode. Gold, which had reached a historical high around $5513 in January, rose again immediately after the start of hostilities. Simultaneously, the S&P 500 fell more than 4% within a month after escalation, reacting to geopolitical risks and rising energy prices. Bitcoin showed moderate growth — about 4%, also due to the crypto market operating 24/7 and reacting faster to news.

What can already be observed:

• The market reacts not so much to the event itself as to its economic consequences. If the problem is purely political and does not disrupt global trade, prices usually quickly return to a fundamentally justified trend. Local conflicts and individual crisis episodes mostly scare the market only in the first days, after which the S&P 500 returns to technical dynamics.
• Traditional “safe assets” can no longer be considered universal protection. Gold does indeed rise in the first moments of a crisis, but its rally often ends quickly when monetary factors and regulator actions come into play. In systemic banking crises, the metal still remains a key protective instrument.
• Bitcoin so far only partially fulfills the role of an anti-crisis asset: in the most tense moments, it may decline along with stocks, as investors need liquidity. However, it shows strong results during rate cuts or when trust in traditional currencies falls.

The main conclusion remains simple: neither gold, nor cryptocurrencies, nor stocks are a universal way to protect capital. Each of these assets performs its function in different crisis phases. The only truly effective strategy is cold calculation and competent diversification.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!