Gold: geopolitics vs central banks

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,600.00 - 4,800.00

Buy: 4,850.00 (on a decisive break above 4,800); target 5,150-5,250; StopLoss 4,750.00

Sell: 4,550.00 (on strong negative fundamentals); target 4,300-4,250; StopLoss 4,650.00

Gold is facing selling pressure as rising uncertainty caused by the US–Iran war—after renewed escalation and failed peace talks—has pushed traders toward the dollar.

The gold market is currently in one of its most unusual phases in the past 10 years. The key paradox: geopolitics is highly aggressive, yet the bullish trend remains unstable.

Large capital is nervous: the inflationary impact of the war with Iran may force major global central banks to take a more hawkish stance and raise interest rates.

At the same time, ongoing disruptions in energy supply through key transport routes are keeping oil prices elevated. This fuels fears of accelerating global inflation and could trigger further tightening by leading central banks, including the Fed.

Current market expectations price in only one Fed rate cut of 0.25% in 2026. This scenario supports US Treasury yields and the dollar, which negatively impacts non-yielding assets like gold and increases the risk of further downside.

Today, gold is trading not as a stabilizing reserve, but as an anti-dollar asset. Central banks continue to accumulate gold in various forms, while speculative demand in Asia is rising.

The market is overheated after the 2025 rally and is now undergoing a logical correction. Notably, in March there was an outflow of $11.8 billion from gold ETFs.

Bears still remain in control. Spot gold has dropped nearly 3%, while spot silver is trying to stabilize after losing around 8% over the week. Even platinum is trading without optimism, below $2000 per ounce (−5.4%).

Silver and platinum have proven more vulnerable to profit-taking after significantly outperforming gold in recent weeks. Both metals benefited from optimism about industrial demand, while expectations of a growing silver supply deficit in 2026 also supported prices.

So what’s the takeaway?

Gold remains a popular way to “trade fear” while also protecting capital from market panic. Additional pressure comes from high US Treasury yields.

The current fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is still downward. Therefore, any rebound may be seen as a selling opportunity and could fade quickly.

The main strategy is to sell into rallies. Buying is justified only after a confident breakout above strong support levels.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!