Geopolitics is killing silver

XAG/USD

Key zone: 70.50 - 74.50

Buy: 75.00 (on a strong positive foundation); target 77.50-79.00; StopLoss 74.30

Sell: 70.00 (on a pullback following a retest of 73.00); target 67.50-65.00; StopLoss 70.70

The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, along with the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, continues to support a risk-heavy environment that encourages demand for silver as a safe-haven asset. Capital inflows into safe havens are also increasing amid another war in the Middle East.

High oil prices, logistical disruptions, and unsuccessful ceasefire or truce initiatives are increasing market volatility and amplifying overall economic uncertainty in commodity markets.

Reminder:

Silver is trading below its key moving averages, with short-term trading volume balanced on both sides of the market, as there are currently no strong arguments for a genuine breakout. Selling pressure remains dominant, while key support and resistance levels continue to hold. Bearish sentiment persists, and traders are monitoring the risks of a support breakdown. However, major speculative players are still largely absent from the market.

• The conflict involving the United States, Iran, and regional actors such as Hezbollah has led to significant instability in the silver market: investors are adjusting their portfolios amid concerns over inflation, interest rates, and commodity trade flows.
• Statements from U.S. officials and the refusal of Lebanese parties to accept ceasefire proposals have further intensified market volatility and global economic uncertainty.
• Previously, silver was already under pressure due to tighter monetary conditions, while technical momentum signaled the need for caution. The current landscape has pushed geopolitics to the forefront, but earlier negative factors, such as the decline in technology-sector stocks, have not disappeared.
• In the short term, NFP results remain a source of pressure on industrial metals, as investors adopted a more cautious stance ahead of the release and are unlikely to take profits before the beginning of the new trading week. The employment data could reshape expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

And what is the result?

The current decline below major moving averages and persistent sell signals indicate ongoing downside risks, making the $70.80 support level critical for traders in the near term.

The expected short-term trading range is between $70.80 and $75, covering the typical volatility range relative to current levels. There is a high probability (73%) of further decline, while the probability of growth stands at 27%. Additional selling pressure could intensify if support at $70.50 is broken.

Until silver overcomes resistance at $73.50, bullish scenarios are not being considered.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!