BTC: where to look for the next bottom

BTC/USD

Key zone: 65,000 - 68,000

Buy: 68,500 (on a confident breakout of the 67,500 level) ; target 71,500; StopLoss 67,500

Sell: 65,000 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 63,000-61,500; StopLoss 66,000

No one knows the exact answer to this question. However, the behavior of the crypto market can be assessed through a set of fundamental factors that shape participants’ expectations and set the direction of price movements.

Political timing

For Trump, it is fundamentally important to approach the November elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives with a positive background in the financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The current correction in this context serves as the main objective: the market is unwinding overbought conditions, while responsibility for the negative dynamics can be shifted onto the outgoing “sufferer” Powell. From the standpoint of political logic, this makes it possible to create a basis for a future “restart” of growth closer to the electoral cycle.

The Fed and the meeting calendar

FOMC meetings are turning into key volatility triggers. The current state of the economy may force the regulator to ease monetary policy even with the existing composition of the Federal Reserve. The ближайшие significant dates are March 18 and April 29.

On May 15, 2026, the formal departure of Jerome Powell and the appointment of Kevin Warsh are scheduled. Even if the procedure is delayed, the very fact of a leadership change may alter market expectations. In the summer of 2026, the active phase of the election campaign will begin, and the Republican administration of the White House will be in critical need of positive market sentiment. June 17, 2026 may potentially become the first meeting with the new Fed chair, creating an effect of advance optimism. All subsequent meetings before the elections — July 29, September 16, and October 28 — will also be points of speculative activity.

The inflation factor

Inflation remains the main risk for any positive scenario. At present, Trump is exerting pressure on agencies that produce statistics, including the BLS, however, as approval ratings decline, this control may weaken. If inflation indicators begin to rise steadily, even the new Fed chair will not be able to initiate rate cuts. Therefore, the key benchmarks for the market remain CPI, PPI, and PCE data.

The role of retail capital

Retail investors traditionally act as a source of liquidity for large capital. Price growth is used by institutional players to move into cash at the expense of demand from private participants. Given the масштабные losses in 2025–2026, the recovery may be prolonged, and the crypto market risks failing to show full-fledged growth even if the U.S. stock market recovers. An alternative scenario could be administrative stimulation, including the redistribution of budgetary resources in favor of the crypto sector.

Reputational losses

After the collapse on October 11, 2025, the crypto market is once again perceived as a high-risk speculative environment. Trust from the mass investor has been significantly undermined. However, aggressive promotion through social networks and media platforms is capable of restoring speculative interest relatively quickly. By the summer of 2026, the mass audience may theoretically once again believe in the image of a “crypto president” and support a new wave of growth.

The factor of large capital

The entry of pension funds into the crypto market through ETFs has increased systemic risks. Now not only private investors but also institutional structures are involved in speculation, which increases the depth of corrections. After the current losses, it is unlikely that fund managers will actively increase positions in the near future, however, the very fact of their presence makes the market more sensitive to macroeconomic factors.

We remind: from the point of view of the crypto market, the bearish trend began relatively recently, and so far there are no convincing reversal signals — neither fundamental nor technical.

A classic V-shaped rebound before summer looks unlikely. Most likely, the market will move through a series of technical pullbacks caused by the closing of short positions and short squeezes. Such movements can be powerful — within 30–40% — and extended over time, but by their nature they will represent standard “bull traps”.

When working with BTC on the spot market, positions should be built gradually, using trailing StopLoss orders, since it is currently difficult to identify reliable technical levels. As reference points, zones of $60000, $57500, $52500, $50000, and $47500 can be considered, but the possibility of a rapid upward correction must remain. A full-fledged bull market will begin to form only after a confident breakout above $70000.

The distance between levels should be kept with a margin, and your strategy should be рассчитана for at least a couple of months ahead.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!