Bitcoin declines, but fear is gone

#BTCUSD

Key zone: 110,000 - 114,000

Buy: 115,000 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 117,500-120,000; StopLoss 113,500

Sell: 110,000 (after a retest of the 112,500 level) ; target 107,500-105,000; StopLoss 111,500

The cryptocurrency market once again shows a tight correlation with traditional assets. BTC fell below $113,000, investors are moving capital into gold, while speculators are increasing the volume of pending orders on both sides of the market.

The main focus is on the Jackson Hole summit. The Fear & Greed Index (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) remains at 46, reflecting the unstable sentiment of participants. At the same time, liquidity on crypto exchanges periodically “collapses,” increasing the risk of manipulation.

This week the CFTC launched the second stage of its “crypto sprint” initiative, inviting the industry to discuss rules for margin and credit trading. This step reflects the course toward tighter regulation in line with the recommendations of Trump’s digital assets task force.

Amid this turmoil the market ignored an important signal:

The US Treasury bought back $4 billion of its own debt — one of the largest buybacks in history. The official goal is “optimization of the structure” of public debt by replacing older Treasuries with new T-bills. However, for investors this is a troubling sign: the overheated market has already decided that the US debt situation is so strained that the Treasury is forced to refinance even under limited liquidity.

This means new T-bills will compete for capital with stocks and cryptocurrencies, adding pressure on risk assets.

Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech (clearly his last in this role!) will be a strong short-term trigger. A hawkish tone may spark a new wave of crypto decline, while overly optimistic comments could temporarily revive buying interest.

Current market situation

• BTC/USD holds around $113,000.
• Ethereum is testing support near $4,280.
• Volatility remains the key theme, and the risk of opening new positions is elevated.

Given the volume and positioning of accumulated pending orders, the upcoming weekend may bring unusually high liquidity and attempts to adjust prices to more justified levels before the new week begins.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!