Asian Diplomacy and Trade Risks

EUR/USD

Key zone: 1.1700 - 1.1750

Buy: 1.1770 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 1.1950-1.2050; StopLoss 1.1700

Sell: 1.1680 (on a pullback after a retest of 1.1750) ; target 1.1500; StopLoss 1.1750

Beijing is preparing to host a U.S. congressional delegation — the first such visit in six years. The benefits for either side remain unclear, but the very fact of the trip signals an acceleration of trade agreement talks following a phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.

Xi was the first to comment on the high-level talks, and his remarks can be boiled down to three points:

• The discussion was “positive and constructive.”
• China’s position on TikTok was voiced and accepted by the U.S.
• Chinese companies should operate in conditions of fair competition.

In classic Asian fashion — nothing specific, no sharp negativity, and no unfounded promises.

Trump, in turn, called the dialogue “very productive” and expressed confidence that a face-to-face meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea on October 31 would resolve the key issues. He gave no details but emphasized that the U.S. expects “multi-billion-dollar payouts” from investors as part of a TikTok deal.

Washington is effectively interfering in corporate negotiations, demanding financial compensation. Beijing takes a hard, pragmatic stance: the U.S. must refrain from unilateral restrictions to avoid undermining the results of consultations. Xi reminded that any TikTok agreement must account for the interests of both sides, adhere to market principles, and comply with PRC law.

The sale of TikTok’s U.S. division has remained a bargaining chip for over a year. The deadline was recently extended to December 16, though it was originally set for September 17.

The U.S. delegation is led by Democrat Adam Smith, former chair of the House Armed Services Committee. Taiwan seems the likeliest topic for discussion, though the official agenda remains undisclosed. For China, the arrival of U.S. officials is a gesture of goodwill that formally obligates neither side. It has all the look of a clever diplomatic maneuver — and not in Trump’s favor.

Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that the EU will act based on its own interests and will not automatically follow the U.S. in imposing 100% tariffs on India and China.

At present, several factors are putting pressure on the dollar. The U.S. is demanding financial compensation for TikTok, China insists on equality, and Europe strives for independence. For traders, this means speculative volatility on any new move by the parties — with reactions expected in both Europe and Asia.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!